High-Grade Bonds Poised for a Comeback: Wall Street’s 2024 Credit Forecast

Quiver Quantitative – In a strategic shift for 2024, major financial institutions including JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are projecting that U.S. investment-grade bonds will outperform speculative-grade, or junk, debt for the first time in four years. This outlook aligns with the anticipation of interest rate cuts and a decelerating economic environment. Bank of America (BAC) echoes this sentiment, favoring higher-rated bonds due to the expected challenges in credit markets, including rising rates, fluctuating earnings, and bond issuance dynamics.

Investment-grade bonds, typically issued at fixed rates by corporations, are more susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. As such, these bonds stand to gain from the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reduction in borrowing costs this year. Conversely, a slowing economy might adversely affect lower-rated debt’s performance, a concern highlighted by Morgan Stanley. Vishwas Patkar, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, emphasizes the potential bumps in the economy’s soft landing, suggesting a more favorable outlook for shorter-dated debts like five-year bonds rather than long-duration credit.

Market Overview:
-A seismic shift is afoot in fixed income land, with top banks like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:) and -Morgan Stanley predicting investment-grade (IG) bonds to eclipse junk debt for the first time since 2020.
-The pivot hinges on anticipated interest rate cuts and an economic slowdown, pushing investors towards the relative safety of IG bonds.
-Bank of America joins the chorus, recommending IG over high-yield, citing potential headwinds for creditworthiness in 2024.

Key Points:
-Interest rate sensitivity of fixed-rate debt makes IG bonds stand to gain from a Fed easing cycle.
-A slowing economy, however, could weigh on junk debt performance, adding to the allure of IG’s stability.
-Morgan Stanley favors shorter-dated bonds (5-year) over longer-duration options for potential upside.
-2023’s late-year IG rally may have capped longer-term returns, while junk debt and leveraged loans benefited from strong economic data.
-Despite IG’s newfound favor, BlackRock (NYSE:) remains cautious, citing tight spreads and potential balance sheet stress from past rate hikes.
-Mitsubishi UFJ warns of potentially “substantial” downsides for all credit markets in a “bumpy landing” scenario, advocating for delayed entry.
-Robeco counters, arguing that attractive yields and resilience to recession fears make IG an appealing alternative to riskier asset classes.

Looking Ahead:
-The success of the IG vs. junk debt narrative hinges heavily on the accuracy of economic forecasts and Fed policy decisions.
-Investors must navigate both potential upside from rate cuts and the downside risks of credit deterioration in a slowing economy.

2023 saw investment-grade debt facing headwinds until a November rally sparked nearly a 10% return surge, marking a historic two-month jump. However, enduring high interest rates and robust economic growth favored high-yield bonds and leveraged loans, which saw a 13% return. This dynamic is poised to shift in 2024 as economic growth slows and rate cuts are priced in. Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit strategist Noel Hebert predicts mid- to high-single digit gains for investment-grade bonds under these conditions.

Nevertheless, not all financial firms share this bullish stance on high-grade debt. BlackRock (BLK) maintains an underweight position in global investment-grade credit, citing tight spreads that inadequately compensate for the anticipated strain on corporate balance sheets from rate hikes. Similarly, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (NYSE:) advises caution in credit markets, warning of significant potential downsides in case of a turbulent economic landing and suggesting a wait-and-see approach for investing in U.S. fixed income. Robeco, an institutional asset manager, however, sees the looming recession risk as a reason to favor investment-grade over high-yield credit, citing attractive yield levels and promising return prospects for the former.

This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative