Hedge funds well-positioned to stabilize portfolios around US elections: UBS

In August, financial markets saw high volatility and sharp reversals, largely driven by weak economic data from the United States and rising concerns regarding the economy’s trajectory, said analysts at UBS. 

Against this backdrop, risk assets showed resilience, with world equities climbing 2.5% and global bonds increasing by 1.1%. Although hedge funds lagged behind equities and bonds with a modest gain of 0.3%, they played an essential role in providing stability during the market turbulence. 

UBS emphasizes that hedge funds are uniquely equipped to stabilize portfolios, especially as the US presidential election draws near.

The performance among hedge fund strategies varied, with equity-hedge managers leading the charge with monthly gains of 0.7%. 

They were followed closely by relative value strategies, which posted gains of 0.6%, and event-driven strategies that increased by 0.4%.

 In contrast, macro managers faced challenges, experiencing an overall decline of 1.5%. Notably, commodity trading advisors suffered the most significant losses at 2.6%, while discretionary macro managers saw a more modest drop of 0.9%. 

UBS analysts flagged that managers with lower market directionality outperformed their counterparts with higher beta exposure, reaffirming the benefits of hedge funds’ diverse strategies in tumultuous market conditions.

The analysts at UBS anticipate that several key factors will drive market dynamics in the coming months, including potential interest rate reductions by central banks, evolving economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the impending US presidential election, which could introduce further volatility. 

August’s market fluctuations served as a reminder of how quickly conditions can shift, emphasizing the importance of a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with traditional investment strategies.

Historically, hedge funds have proven their ability to thrive during periods of high volatility, particularly around significant events like US elections. UBS analysts argue that this environment presents robust opportunities for hedge funds to exploit market dislocations, ultimately enhancing portfolio diversification. 

They suggest that investors consider focusing on low net equity long/short strategies that can capitalize on market dispersion and reduce exposure to potential sell-offs, thereby complementing traditional equity investments.

Additionally, UBS advocates for diversification within alternative credit strategies, recommending tactical managers capable of navigating sectoral or regional dispersions. These managers can adeptly adopt net-short positions if economic conditions unexpectedly deteriorate. 

The current macroeconomic landscape also invites consideration of strategies that leverage macroeconomic shifts. Historically, macro funds have effectively navigated divergent global cycles and varying central banking policies, providing strong diversification benefits during turbulent times.

UBS flags that multi-strategy platforms, with their adaptable approaches to shifting investment strategies based on evolving market conditions, offer a comprehensive solution for managing risk and seeking returns across various scenarios. 

While the potential for hedge funds to provide portfolio stability is significant, UBS analysts caution investors to remain aware of the unique risks associated with hedge fund investments, including partial illiquidity, leverage, complexity, and the high dispersion of returns among managers.

August’s market recap illustrates the challenges hedge funds navigated amid heightened volatility and shifting sentiment, particularly following the Bank of Japan’s July rate hike and concerns surrounding the US economic recovery. 

As global equity markets displayed pronounced fluctuations and geopolitical risks loomed, hedge funds, as tracked by the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, managed to achieve a 0.3% gain month over month, with a year-to-date increase of 6.8%. This performance underscores hedge funds’ potential to provide stability in uncertain market environments.

The month also saw notable success in specific hedge fund strategies. For instance, relative value convertible arbitrage managers recorded a gain of 1% in August, capitalizing on market dislocations and volatility, while equity market neutral funds gained 0.7%. 

As the markets look ahead to the US elections and the broader economic landscape, UBS remains optimistic about the role hedge funds can play in stabilizing portfolios and generating strong returns. 

In the face of evolving economic conditions and potential volatility, hedge funds are well-positioned to provide the diversification and adaptability that investors need to navigate an increasingly complex investment environment.