Government bonds are out, investment grade bonds in, UBS says, ahead of Fed cuts

Investing.com — Fixed income and high-grade government bonds are out and quality, or investment-grade corporate bonds, are in vogue, analysts at UBS said in a report Friday as the investment bank shifts its asset allocation strategy ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts.

“Following strong performance from quality bonds, we are closing our preference for fixed income and for high-grade (government) bonds within the asset class,” UBS analysts said.

This change in allocation comes as the outlook for Fed rate cuts has shifted, with the rate cuts now expected in September.

Powell on Friday signaled that the Fed could cut rates as soon as next month, saying “the time has come for policy to adjust.”

The investment bank is recommending clients shift excess cash into quality fixed income, including investment-grade corporate bonds, to prepare for a lower interest rate environment. 

“We’re positioning for lower interest rates,” the analysts added. In equities, UBS is focusing on quality companies with strong balance sheets, competitive advantages, and exposure to structurally growing revenue streams.

The return to allocating to quality is also driven by expectation that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession in the near term as the Fed is likely to act, if needed, to ensure a soft landing. 

“The outlook for Fed rate cuts has shifted, with a more mixed set of labor data showing the Fed now has both the imperative and the leeway to cut interest rates,” the analysts added.