Goldman sees Powell sticking to July tightening message at Jackson Hole
2022.08.23 23:49
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 28, 2015. REUTERS/Jonathan Crosby/
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said on Tuesday it expects Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to reiterate the case for slowing the pace of tightening, when he speaks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
In a research note, Goldman economists said the message will be the same as laid out in his July news conference and in the minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting released last week.
“He is likely to balance that message by stressing that the FOMC remains committed to bringing inflation down and that upcoming policy decisions will depend on incoming data,” the note said, adding that policymakers saw the easing of financial conditions since July as unhelpful to keeping the economy on a below-potential growth trajectory.
Goldman expects the FOMC to hike rates by 50 basis points in September, and by 25 bp in November and December, less aggressive than the 75 basis-point hikes at each of its last two meetings.
Traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a 75 basis-point (bps) rate hike at the Fed meeting next month. [FEDWATCH] On Monday the odds favored a slightly better-than-even chance of a 50 bp hike in September.
