Goldman sees Indian Rupee as defensive in EM FX carry strategy
2024.05.30 10:35
Goldman Sachs highlighted the Indian Rupee (INR) as a standout in the emerging market foreign exchange (EM FX) complex, due to its high carry-to-volatility ratio.
The firm pointed out that the INR’s attractiveness is further enhanced when paired with shorts in the Euro (EUR) or the Chinese Yuan (CNH). Goldman expects the Rupee to maintain its appeal as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues its cautious interest rate policy and tight control over FX volatility.
According to Goldman Sachs, the trade-weighted INR is closely tracking the trade-weighted U.S. Dollar, with the Rupee’s global betas below historical averages. This positioning is considered by the firm as a key defensive component for any EM FX carry strategy. They continue to recommend short positions in .
In terms of valuations, Goldman Sachs finds the INR to be modestly undervalued against the U.S. Dollar, attributing this to the Dollar’s overvaluation rather than a premium specific to India. The firm does not anticipate a significant movement in the FX spot market following the conclusion of the 2024 Indian general election.
This expectation is based on the prediction that the Dollar will remain highly valued, and the RBI’s FX management will likely limit any potential FX reaction, even if there is an increase in foreign investment into India’s local equity and debt markets post-election.
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