Goldman Sachs remains selectively bullish commodities, expects year-end returns to increase

Goldman Sachs analysts said they remain selectively bullish on commodities, projecting total returns to rise from 13% year-to-date to 18% by year-end.

The bank cited several reasons for their optimism, including solid demand growth, structural upside in industrial metals and gold, and a reduced geopolitical risk premium for oil.

Analysts identify five key market trends that will create structural opportunities in commodities: disinvestment, decarbonization and climate change, de-risking, data centers and AI, and defense spending. In addition, they highlight that low investment in commodities induces select tightness, requiring higher prices to attract green capital expenditure.

Furthermore, the firm notes that geopolitical de-risking and strategic restocking support demand for gold and critical commodities, while data centers and AI support demand via power and higher incomes. Defense spending also boosts demand for metals and distillate fuels.

Specifically, Goldman Sachs forecasts a “sharp rally” in prices, expecting an additional 15% increase to $12,000 per ton by year-end as stocks of cheaper substitutes deplete.

For gold, analysts predict a 14% rise to $2,700 per ounce, driven by strong demand from emerging market central banks and Asian households.

In the oil market, Goldman Sachs forecasts to remain within the $75-90 range, noting value in net long oil positions due to geopolitical hedging and roll yield.

However, they see limited further upside for prices this summer in the US and Europe given the still elevated storage levels.

Overall, Goldman Sachs remains confident in the structural opportunities and demand drivers for commodities, anticipating increased returns by the end of the year.