Commodities and Futures News

Goldman Sachs: OPEC meeting ‘bearish’; downside risks to $75-90 Brent range

2024.06.03 07:30

Goldman Sachs: OPEC meeting 'bearish'; downside risks to $75-90 Brent range

Goldman Sachs analysts have deemed the recent OPEC+ meeting as bearish, citing plans to phase out extra voluntary production cuts as a key factor.

Despite extending multiple layers of production cuts, including 2 mb/d of group cuts through 2025, 1.66 mb/d of voluntary cuts through 2025, and 2.2 mb/d of extra voluntary cuts through the third quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs believes the decision to unwind these extra cuts is problematic.

Eight OPEC+ countries have indicated a gradual phase-out of the 2.2 mb/d of extra voluntary cuts over the period from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025.

Goldman Sachs notes: “While this monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, the communication of a surprisingly detailed default plan to unwind extra cuts makes it harder to maintain low production if the market turns outs ofter than bullish OPEC expectations,” says the bank.

The decision reflects a desire among several members to resume higher production levels due to high spare capacity. This surplus was a significant factor in Goldman Sachs’ above-consensus prediction of a production increase announcement.

Given the recent upside surprises to inventories, Goldman Sachs now views the risks to its $75-90 range as skewed to the downside.

The analysts conclude, “As a result of the bearish meeting, and given recent upside surprises to inventories relative to our expectations, we now see the risks to our $75-90 range for Brent as skewed to the downside.”



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 103,152.64 2.02%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,339.06 14.36%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.01%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.36 5.56%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 636.10 2.82%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 171.68 7.96%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.00%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.205357 8.00%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.785412 7.30%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.262783 3.06%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,337.22 14.54%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 103,314.68 2.11%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 3.92 0.12%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 16.05 5.20%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 23.37 9.89%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,809.80 14.23%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.296461 5.13%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000015 7.77%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.200966 5.63%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 24.93 13.80%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 409.63 1.97%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.27 2.17%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 8.69 1.36%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.01%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 99.26 7.37%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.84 12.92%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 2,339.69 14.57%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 308.61 5.22%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,491.83 14.06%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.47 0.67%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00 0.26%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000012 21.35%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.724408 15.10%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.09%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 103,102.62 2.05%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 30.34 1.82%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 6.36 15.20%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 426.20 2.70%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.91 12.15%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.02%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.55 6.17%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.02 7.63%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 53.53 2.11%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 209.90 10.22%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.05 0.01%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 19.22 8.62%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.101203 4.78%
blackrock-usd-institutional-digital-liquidity-fund
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00 0.00%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.41 8.71%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 14.05 13.25%