Goldman Sachs expects UK unemployment to hold at 4.3% in October
2024.12.13 11:17
Today, Goldman Sachs provided a preview of the upcoming UK labor market data for October and inflation figures for November.
The financial institution anticipates the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%. In terms of wages, a moderation in sequential private sector regular pay is expected following a strong September, influenced by compositional effects.
However, due to a solid base effect, the year-on-year rate for the three-month period is projected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 5.0%.
The overall pay growth for the economy could see an uplift from the 5.5% pay rise for National Health Service (NHS) employees. Looking ahead to November’s inflation numbers, Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight decline in services inflation to 4.98%, which is 7 basis points above the Bank of England’s (BoE) projection.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is expected to climb by 14 basis points to 3.45%, driven by a rise in the annual rate of core goods inflation.
Goldman Sachs also predicts that headline inflation will see an increase of 26 basis points, reaching 2.54% — 12 basis points higher than the BoE’s forecast.
This anticipated rise in inflation is partly attributed to an uptick in fuel prices and the tobacco duty increase announced in the Autumn Budget.
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