Gold prices in India rise amid speculation of US Federal Reserve policy easing

Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India saw an uptick today, with a significant increase to ₹61,088 per ten grams, marking a rise of ₹304 from Monday’s closing price. The upward trend in gold was mirrored in futures contracts as well, with climbing slightly to ₹60,956, up from Monday’s close of ₹60,657. In contrast, experienced a marginal decrease, settling at ₹72,788 per kilogram compared to the previous rate.

The movements in precious metals come against a backdrop of global economic sentiments influenced by a weakening US Dollar and speculation of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy stance. The Comex Gold market has been propelled forward by these expectations. According to forecasts from the CME’s Fedwatch tool, there is approximately a one in three chance that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as March next year, with substantial easing anticipated by the end of 2023.

Further influencing market dynamics are the lower-than-expected US bond yields, which are currently below the Fed fund rates. This discrepancy has fueled discussions about potential monetary relaxation in the near future. Adding to the global economic narrative are China’s commitments to enhanced fiscal measures aimed at economic revival. These measures are spearheaded by initiatives from Finance Minister Lan Fo’an.

However, cautionary tones have also been sounded by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who has warned against underestimating the persistence of inflation which may necessitate sustained high-interest rates.

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