Gold Mining Stocks Poised for a Comeback
2023.09.13 05:01
In June, we about the bottom in and cannabis through and (ETFs), respectively.
In July, we wrote about the potential top in and .
In August, we wrote about the importance of the retail sector. is below the July calendar range and a major reason the market is yet to make new highs.
All year, we have been on the inflation trade through agriculture and energy.
Last week, we spoke about futures on CNBN Asia and the barometer that it provides traders to gauge inflation.
Over the weekend, we wrote about the potential bottom in .
No , you say?
That -12% deflationary drag we saw in July CPI, which we saw only as a normal volatile correction in inflation, well, that is all gone now.
So, what is next?
The metals seem to be languishing, almost not believing the longer-term impact of what oil and particularly sugar futures have done.
Today, we turn our attention to another potential widow-maker, perhaps ready to resurrect.
Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:) (GDX the ETF).
GDX has been difficult to trade all year.
The ETF is a sell when it looks amazing and a buy when it looks horrid.
Top 5 Holdings
- Newmont Corp (NYSE:) 9.95%
- Barrick Gold (NYSE:) Corporation 9.01%
- Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:) 8.73%
- Agnico Eagle (NYSE:) Mines Limited 7.54%
- Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:) Corp 6.11%
Does GDX look horrid enough to consider a buy?
Our Leadership indicator shows that GDX is beginning to outperform . If we are looking for more confirmation, we also want to see the Leadership blue line clear, not only the red line but also the Bollinger Band.
Our Real Motion indicator shows a mean reversion in momentum that happened in late to mid-August.
However, in a bearish phase along with price, we also want to see the red dotted line cross back over the 50-DMA (blue line).
On price, interestingly, the July 6-month calendar ranges low, and the 10 Daily moving average aligns.
Recent highs could not clear the overhead 50-DMA, now sitting at around 29.70.
With CPI coming on in the morning, this is one ETF that has our attention.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 440 support 458 resistance
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 185 pivotal
- Dow (DIA) 347 pivotal
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 363 support and over 375 looks better
- Regional banks (KRE) 44 pivotal
- Semiconductors (SMH) 150-161 range to watch
- Transportation (IYT) Needs to get back over 247 to look healthier
- Biotechnology (IBB) Compression between 124-130
- Retail (XRT) 62.90 the July calendar range low broke down-along with IYT-2 negative signs
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This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.
