Gold at record highs as rate cuts beckon, Trump talk hits Taiwan stocks
2024.07.16 22:41
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Gold hit a record and bonds rallied on Wednesday as markets prepared for global interest rates to fall, while stocks in Taiwan slipped after U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump sounded lukewarm in his commitment to the island’s defence.
The scaled record highs overnight and futures were steady in Asia. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat and rose 0.1%.
In Taiwan, chipmaker TSMC fell 2%, wiping out almost $16 billion in market value, after Trump questioned U.S. support in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, saying Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection.
It was unclear exactly what Trump was planning, however his selection of trade hawk J.D. Vance as his running mate had already put markets on notice that China will figure heavily in his foreign policy thinking.
Chinese stocks were subdued for a second day running.
The Taiwan dollar slipped slightly to a two-week low. steadied at 7.2676 per dollar.
“It is more and more clear to me that Trump should be bullish USD for at least a while,” said Brent Donnelly, president at analytics firm Spectra Markets, as he’s expected to impose tariffs and run a higher budget deficit.
“It’s hard to imagine ending 2024 below 7.25 on a Trump victory in November but it’s not hard to imagine it closing above 7.50,” he said, referring to the dollar-yuan pair.
Elsewhere in Asia, New Zealand shares hit their highest since March 2022 after data showed inflation slowing, though the rates market dipped and the currency rose on sticky domestically driven inflation.[.AX][NZD/]
Treasuries held gains that had pushed 10-year U.S. yields to four-month lows overnight after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said recent cooling in inflation readings “add somewhat to confidence” that consumer prices are coming under control.
Fed funds futures have fully priced a U.S. rate cut for September, followed by two more before the end of January 2025.
Ten-year yields were steady at 4.175% and two-year yields hovered at 4.445%. Bond markets in Australia, Japan and South Korea rallied. [JP/][.KS]
Lower yields helped propel gold sharply higher overnight and through chart resistance around $2,450 per ounce despite a broadly firm dollar. It touched a record $2,478 in Asia trade on Wednesday. [GOL/]
“Gold’s ability to find support in any condition this year is worth highlighting,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:) commodity strategist Vivek Dhar.
“While we think gold prices face uncertainty in coming months, we think the uncertainty has a positive skew, raising the risk that gold rises above our forecast of $2,500/oz by the end of the year.”
The Japanese yen was slightly weaker at 158.51 per dollar, though after a few rounds of suspected yen buying from Japanese authorities last week it remained well off a 38-year low of 161.96 touched earlier in July.
The euro was steady at $1.0925. Oil prices slipped slightly, weighed by signs of weakening demand from China.
futures fell 13 cents to $83.60 a barrel and futures were also 13 cents lower at $80.63 a barrel. [O/R]
British inflation data is due later in the day where focus will fall on services inflation, which is expected to run at a still-hot 5.6% in June from a year earlier.
