Global banks have announced an imminent recession in the US by 2023
2022.11.21 09:32
Global banks have announced an imminent recession in the US by 2023
Budrigannews.com – After a year marked by a war and soaring inflation that triggered one of the quickest monetary policy tightening cycles in recent memory, the world’s largest investment banks anticipate that global economic growth will slow further in 2023.
Since implementing its first hike in March, the Federal Reserve of the United States has increased interest rates by 375 basis points this year.Even though the central bank is expected to slow down its rate of interest rate increases, this has raised concerns about a recession.
Real GDP (annual Y/Y) forecasts for 2023:
Bank Global U.S. China
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) 2.20% 0.50% 5%
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) 1.80% 1.1% 4.50%
Barclays (LON:) 1.70% -0.1% 3.80%
JPMorgan (NYSE:) 1%
BNP Paribas* 2.3% -0.10% 4.50%
UBS 2.1% 0.1% 4.5%
U.S. inflation forecast for 2023 and Fed terminal rate forecast:
Bank U.S. Inflation Fed Terminal Rate
(annual Y/Y for
2023)
Morgan Stanley Headline CPI: 3.3% 4.625% (by Jan ’23)
Goldman Sachs Headline CPI: 3.2% 5 – 5.25%
Core CPI: 3.2% (by May ’23)
Core PCE: 2.9%
Barclays Headline CPI: 3.70% 5% – 5.25% (by March
’23)
JPM Headline CPI: 4.1% 5% (by Jan ’23)
Core CPI: 4.2%
BNP Paribas (OTC:) Headline CPI: 4.40% 5% – 5.25% (by Q1 ’23)
UBS Headline CPI: 3.6% 5%
Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will cut rates for the first time in December 2023, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.375 percent by the end of that year.After the rate was cut, Barclays expects the rate to be between 4.25 and 4.5 percent by the end of the year.
By the end of 2023, UBS anticipates that U.S. inflation will be “close enough” to the Fed’s 2% target to warrant rate cuts.
By the end of 2023, the following are forecasts for currency pairs and yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries:
Bank/Metric EUR/ USD/ USD/ S&P 500 Target (NYSE:) U.S. 10-year
USD yield
Morgan Stanley 1.08 6.8 140 3.50%
Goldman Sachs 1.05 6.9 140 4,000
Barclays 1.05 7.3 131 3.75%
Deutsche Bank (ETR:) 1.1 125
BNP Paribas 1.06 6.9 128 3,400 3.50%
UBS 1.04 6.9 135 3,700(by June 3%
