Economic news

Geopolitics overtakes inflation at top of sovereign wealth fund worry list

2024.07.21 19:25

By Libby George and Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Geopolitical rivalries, including brewing trade battles between the United States and China, now trump inflation as the biggest worry for sovereign wealth funds and central banks managing some $22 trillion in assets, an Invesco survey published on Monday showed.

The ratcheting up of conflict – from Russia’s war in Ukraine to trade restrictions – has loomed over global investors for several years, but with the inflation tide ebbing, and as nearly half the world’s population votes on new leaders, the tensions are now centre stage.

“This of course is the year of elections,” said Rod Ringrow, Invesco’s head of official institutions, adding: “Geopolitics has trumped (inflation) on both the short term and the long term outlook.”

Some 83% of the survey respondents listed geopolitical tensions as their top near-term concern, surpassing the 73% who listed inflation. Geopolitical fragmentation and protectionism also topped the list of worries for the coming decade for 86% of respondents.

Over the long term, respondents listed climate change as the second-biggest risk.

“Climate is mainstream now and the investment processes for the sovereign funds and the central banks…are beginning to allocate capital to look at that and see how that impacts,” Ringrow said.

The Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study, in its 12th year, polled 83 sovereign wealth funds and 53 central banks in the first quarter of 2024.

OPPORTUNITY IN GOLD

The strains – specifically the West’s confiscation of more than $300 billion worth of Russia’s assets in response to Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine – also spooked central banks.

A total of 56% of them said the “potential weaponisation” of reserves boosted the appeal of gold.

“We have seen more central banks buying gold, buying physical gold…and an increasing demand to try and hold the gold, or some of it, locally,” Ringrow said.

Central banks traditionally stored gold in centres like London and New York – where, as Venezuela found in recent years, it can be effectively seized.

EMERGING OPTIMISM

More than half of respondents said that emerging markets are likely to benefit from the increasing multipolarity, while 67% of sovereign wealth funds expect emerging markets to match or outperform developed markets.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar and Euro bank notes are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture taken May 7, 2017. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/Illustration/File Photo

India was the most attractive market, partly because its bonds are becoming part of easy-to-access global investment indices.

But Ringrow said a constellation of other emerging economies, including Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and South Korea, can “take advantage of the dislocation in trade and economic activity”.



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 75,894.33 0.23%
vested-xor
Vested XOR (VXOR) $ 3,405.08 99,999.99%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,879.30 5.35%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.06%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 195.05 3.95%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 597.10 0.62%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999897 0.04%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 0.552971 1.50%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,877.90 5.31%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.191546 2.72%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.396129 8.99%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.160185 1.63%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 4.88 1.76%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,412.38 5.72%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 75,814.31 0.41%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000019 1.57%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 27.24 0.26%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 2,879.40 5.39%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 12.51 1.97%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 377.37 0.56%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.28 1.46%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.13 0.31%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 6.26 0.39%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.11%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 71.36 0.02%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 8.86 6.98%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,027.44 5.33%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 4.21 1.28%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 9.73 0.37%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000011 7.61%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 506.02 3.75%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 7.74 2.24%
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 1.40 1.76%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999806 0.02%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.101268 4.17%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 20.15 2.47%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 163.31 0.99%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.19%
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.112998 6.41%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 19.63 1.51%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 181.68 4.16%
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.342972 2.10%
blockstack
Stacks (STX) $ 1.67 3.42%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.091067 5.95%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 40.44 3.04%
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 1.00 0.13%
dogwifcoin
dogwifhat (WIF) $ 2.34 3.50%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.577135 4.15%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.665767 11.26%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 3.75 0.37%