GBP/USD Rises Ahead of UK Retail Sales

08/17/2023

2 minutes read

2023.08.17 09:41

UK retail sales expected to slip in July
Fed minutes note concern about inflation

The British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. In the North American session, is trading at 1.2772, up 0.32%.

UK retail sales expected to decline

The UK will wrap up a busy week with retail sales on Friday. The July report is expected to show a decline in consumer spending. Headline retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% after a 0.7% gain in May and core retail sales are projected to decline by 0.7% after a 0.8% increase in May. The June numbers were higher than expected despite high inflation, helped by record-hot weather. Will the July data also surprise to the upside?

The UK consumer has been grappling with the highest inflation in the G7 club, which means shoppers are getting less for their money. This has dampened consumption, a key driver of the economy. Energy prices are lower, thanks to the energy price cap, but food inflation continues to soar and was 17.4% y/y in June. Consumer confidence has been mired deep in negative territory and the GfK consumer confidence index, which will be released later today, is expected at -29, almost unchanged from the previous release of -30 points.

The Bank of England would like to follow some of the other major central banks that are in a pause phase, but the grim inflation picture may force the BoE to keep raising interest rates, which could tip the weak economy into a recession.

Wage growth jumped to 7.8% in the three months to June, up from 7.5% in the previous period. In July, headline CPI fell to 6.9%, down sharply from 7.9%, but core CPI remains sticky, and was unchanged at 6.9%. The data points to a wage-price spiral which could impede the BoE’s efforts to curb inflation.

The Federal Reserve remains concerned about high inflation and said that additional rate hikes might be needed, according to the minutes of the July meeting. At the meeting, the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, a move that was widely anticipated. Most members “continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy”. At the same, time, members expressed uncertainty over the future rate path since there were signs that inflationary pressures could be easing.

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