GBP/USD: Pound Slips as UK Payrolls Slide

2 weeks ago

1 minute read

2025.01.21 10:04

The British pound continues to show sharp swings this week. After a spectacular 1.3% gain on Monday, has reversed directions and is trading at 1.2233 in the European session, down 0.68% on the day.

UK Payrolls Slump, Wage Growth Climbs

The report a reliable indicator of employment growth, showed a sharp decline of 47 thousand m/m in December 2024. This was the largest decline since Nov. 2020 and follows a revised -32 thousand in November. The back-to-back declines are a result of the government’s new payroll taxes in the budget, which is causing businesses to release workers. (excluding bonuses) remains hot and increased to 5.6% in December, in line with the market estimate and higher than the 5.2% gain in November.

While the weak employment data will be a headache for the UK government, it supports the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to kick-start the flagging economy. The BoE held in December and meets next on Feb. 6, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 85%. has remained sticky and the jump in wage growth is a reminder of the upside risk of inflation. The BoE may be looking at rate cuts in the coming months but it will have to do so cautiously, ever mindful of inflation.

In the US, the strong report for December is raising the possibility that the easing cycle may be over. The Bank of America doesn’t expect any rate cuts in 2025 and says the risks for the next move are tilted towards a hike. The started the easing cycle with a bang in September 2024, chopping rates by a half-point, but the strong economy means Fed policymakers may have to consider rate hikes in 2025. GBP/USD-4-Hour Chart