FX traders brace for wild moves after US election
2024.11.05 05:51
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON (Reuters) – Currency traders rushed to hedge against big overnight price movements that might ensue as the results of the 2024 U.S. election trickle out, pushing options volatility for the euro and Mexican peso to the highest since the 2016 vote.
The euro and the peso are seen as among the most sensitive to the outcome of the election, which has been too close to call for weeks between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.
Harris and Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.
Analysts believe Trump’s policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, and drive up bond yields and the dollar, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.
Euro overnight implied volatility, which reflects demand for protection against very near-term price moves, surged to 26.4%, the highest since Nov. 9, 2016, a day after the U.S. election that year that Trump won, confounding previous polls.
Overnight volatility on the Mexican peso soared above 87%, its highest since the day of the 2016 vote on Nov. 8.
“Today’s election is closer than a coin toss, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome,” Monex Europe strategists said in a daily note.
“That fact is likely to keep market price action light today, with traders awaiting results in the early hours of tomorrow morning.”
Looking ahead, FX traders were not anticipating much of a cooling-down in volatility in the coming weeks either.
One-week implied volatility for the euro hit 13.06%, its highest since March 2023, when the collapse of Swiss bank Credit Suisse rattled markets. One-month volatility is also around its highest since March last year.
One-week peso volatility is at 44%, its highest since the COVID crisis in March 2020, and close to four times what it was at the time of the November 2020 U.S. election.
Volatility on currencies of other key U.S. trading partners has also picked up sharply. Trump has threatened ever-more punitive tariffs on China and other nations should he win.
One-week implied volatility on the offshore on Tuesday was close to its highest since at least 2012, according to LSEG data, at 14.45%, from around 2.5% a week ago.
Canadian dollar one-week options topped 8.5% on Tuesday, the most since March 2023.
Strategists at ING said the fact that implied volatility has risen so much relative to realised volatility, particularly for euro and Canadian dollar volatility, shows how nervous the market is.
“We think this makes sense and reflects the view that a Trump 2.0 would not merely punish China with tariffs, but also pursue universal tariffs which would very much hit open economies like the euro zone and Canada,” ING strategist Chris Turner said.
