Futures steady before key payrolls data as investors weigh Middle East risks
2024.10.04 06:54
(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures were tepid on Friday as investors refrained from making significant bets ahead of crucial payrolls data and watched for any escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Labor Department’s non-farm payrolls data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the economy likely maintained a moderate pace of job growth in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.2%.
“Looking at the broad picture of the U.S. labor market, the position is what it has been all year. Firms are slower to hire, but not keen to fire. This gives job security and supports consumer spending patterns,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The labor market is under greater scrutiny after the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in September by a rare 50 basis points to stave off any further weakening in employment. Friday’s figures could shed light on the central bank’s policy trajectory for the remainder of the year.
Odds of a smaller 25 bps reduction at the Fed’s November meeting stand at 68%, up from 46.7% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
Traders expect borrowing costs to fall by 66 bps before the year ends, down from nearly 79 bps a week ago, according to data compiled by LSEG, as recent reports pointed to strong service sector activity in September.
At 05:42 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 28 points, or 0.07%, E-minis were up 4 points, or 0.07% and E-minis were up 27.5 points, or 0.14%.
Investors will also scrutinize comments from New York Fed President John Williams before markets open for insights on the jobs report and the policy path.
Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower in the previous session and were set to finish the first week of October on the back foot as investors were skittish about escalating tensions in the Middle East and a workers’ strike earlier this week.
Analysts said the events could have an impact on the inflation and labor figures for October.
Energy stocks such as Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:) edged higher 0.86%, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:) inched up 0.59% and Chevron (NYSE:) crept up 0.69% in premarket trading, as crude prices surged on concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East due to the widening regional conflict.
The S&P 500 Energy sector is on track to log its biggest weekly jump since March 2023.
Meanwhile, ports on the East and Gulf Coasts began reopening late on Thursday after workers reached a wage deal, but clearing the cargo backlog will likely take time. U.S. shares of Zim Integrated Shipping Services were down 7%.
Among others, Spirit Airlines (NYSE:) nosedived 44% after a report showed the carrier was in talks with bondholders about the terms of a potential bankruptcy filing after its failed merger with JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:).
Rate-sensitive growth stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ:) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:) climbed 1.3% each, chip stocks Nvidia (NASDAQ:) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:) gained 0.1% each, while Broadcom (NASDAQ:) added 0.39%.
