Futures dip as caution prevails ahead of inflation data
2024.11.27 06:41
(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures slipped on Wednesday as investors awaited key economic data, including a crucial inflation report, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy path.
The Personal Expenditure report, the central bank’s preferred inflation data, is due at 10 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Reuters expect prices to increase by 2.3% on an annual basis in October, higher than the previous month’s 2.1% rise and above the Fed’s 2% target.
Minutes from the Fed’s meeting earlier this month showed policymakers were uncertain about the outlook for interest-rate cuts and how much current rates were restricting the economy.
Traders are betting on a 66.3% probability the central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in December, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool. They are also pricing in roughly 75 bps worth of rate cuts by the end of 2025, down from about 250 bps in September, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Much of the worry has been that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts and tariff policies, including his latest stand on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, could push prices up, spark a trade war and weigh on growth globally.
Deutsche Bank (ETR:) economists forecast such tariffs could lift U.S. core PCE inflation for 2025 from 2.6% to 3.7%, if fully implemented. Before Trump’s victory, the expectation was for 2.3% inflation next year.
At 05:37 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 34 points, or 0.08%, E-minis were down 10 points, or 0.17%, and E-minis were down 68.25 points, or 0.33%.
Futures tracking small caps edged up 0.4%. Equities have rallied this year, with Wall Street’s main indexes and the small-cap Russell index trading near record highs.
The benchmark S&P 500 is on track for its biggest one-month rise in a year and poised for its sixth month of gains out of seven, as markets price in the probability Trump’s policies could benefit local businesses and the overall economy.
Investors will also monitor the second estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product, weekly jobless claims figures and October’s durables goods data ahead of market open, all due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Globally, nervousness prevailed as China’s state media warned Trump’s policy pledges earlier in the week could drag the world’s top two economies into a mutually destructive tariff war.
Among top movers, Dell (NYSE:) slid 12.7% after issuing a weak quarterly revenue forecast and HP (NYSE:) dropped 9% after a downbeat forecast for first-quarter profit, signaling lackluster demand in the personal computer market.
The sentiment spread to other tech names such as Nvidia (NASDAQ:), which fell 1.3%, Microsoft (NASDAQ:), off 0.6%, and Apple (NASDAQ:), which dropped 0.3%.
Workday (NASDAQ:) lost 10% after forecasting fourth-quarter subscription revenue below expectations, hit by weaker client spending on its human capital management software.
Oil prices were steady as investors monitored the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
