Fed hawks, Fed doves: What U.S. central bankers are saying

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, and the choices more varied: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Over time Reuters has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances – for an accounting of how our counts have changed please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

  Patrick John Jerome Michelle

Harker, Williams, New Powell, Bowman,

Philadelph York Fed Fed Governor,

ia Fed President, Chair, permanent

President, permanent permanent voter: “My

2023 voter: “Right voter: baseline

voter: “A now we need “If it economic

decrease to keep this becomes outlook

in the restrictive appropria continues

policy stance of te to to expect

rate is policy in tighten that we

not place for policy will need

something some time.” further, to

that is Oct. 18, 2023 we will increase

likely to not the

happen in hesitate federal

the short to do funds rate

term.” so.” Nov. further.”

Nov. 8, 9, 2023 Nov. 28,

2023 2023

  Raphael Philip Christoph Loretta

Bostic, Jefferson, er Mester,

Atlanta Vice Chair: Waller, Cleveland

Fed “We are in a Governor, Fed

President, sensitive permanent President,

2024 period of voter: “I 2024

voter: “I risk am voter:

think management, increasin “We’re

where we where we have gly going to

are now to balance confident have to

will be the risk of that see much

sufficient not having policy is more

ly tightened currently evidence

restrictiv enough, well that

e to get against the positione inflation

us to the risk of d to slow is on that

2% level policy being the timely

for too economy path back

inflation. restrictive.” and get to 2%.”

” Nov. 3, Oct. 9, 2023 inflation Nov. 16,

2023 back to 2023

2%.” Nov.

28, 2023

    Michael Barr, Neel  

Vice Chair of Kashkari,

Supervision, Minneapol

permanent is Fed

voter: The President

Fed is “at or , 2023

near the voter:

peak” of “When

interest activity

rates.” Nov. continues

17, 2023 to run

this hot,

that

makes me

question

if policy

is as

tight as

we assume

it

currently

is.” Nov.

7, 2023

    Lisa Cook, Lorie  

Governor, Logan,

permanent Dallas

voter:  “I Fed

see risks as President

two-sided, , 2023

requiring us voter:

to balance “We have

the risk of seen some

not retraceme

tightening nt in

enough that

against the 10-year

risk of yield and

tightening financial

too much.” condition

Nov. 16, 2023 s, and so

I’ll be

watching

to see

whether

that

continues

and what

that

means for

the

implicati

ons of

policy,”

Nov. 7,

2023

    Austan Goolsb Thomas  

ee, Chicago Barkin,

Fed Richmond

President, Fed

2023 voter: President

“If we hit , 2024

the targets voter:

that we “Whether

expect to a

hit, then we slowdown

would be on that

path to get settles

to 2%, and inflation

that’s what I requires

call the more from

golden path.” us

Nov. 17, 2023 remains

to be

seen.”

Nov. 9,

2023

    Mary Daly,    

San Francisco

Fed

President,

2024 voter:

“We can take

our time to

do it right.”

Nov. 17, 2023

    Susan    

Collins,

Boston Fed

President,

2025 voter:

The Fed

should be

“patient and

resolute, and

I wouldn’t

take

additional

firming off

the table.”

Nov. 17, 2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end, but recently many have expressed more confidence that none will be needed. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed’s president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed its president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Below is a Reuters’ count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centris Hawkish Hawk

t

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3

March ’23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2

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