Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying

08/15/2024

4 minutes read

2024.08.15 11:46

(Reuters) -U.S. central bankers have kept their target for short-term borrowing costs in the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July, when they completed their 2022-2023 rate-hike campaign to combat soaring prices as global economies recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic recession.

Inflation and the labor market have both cooled appreciably since then, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell says policymakers think the time for cutting the policy rate is approaching.

When and by how much is a subject of intense speculation. Fed policymakers say the decision will be driven by the economic data. It will also undoubtedly be shaped by competing views among policymakers over how to interpret that data.

Here is a look at the latest comments from Fed policymakers, sorting them under the labels “dove” and “hawk” as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation.

The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic.

For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Adriana Jerome Powell, Fed Michelle

Kugler, Chair, permanent Bowman,

Governor, voter: “If we were Governor,

permanent to see inflation permanent

voter: “I’m moving down … voter: “We need

cautiously more or less in to be patient

optimistic line with and avoid

that we’re expectations, undermining

seeing growth remains continued

progress and reasonably strong, progress on

the type of and the labor lowering

progress that market remains inflation by

we need to get consistent with overreacting to

back to 2%” current conditions, any single data

inflation. then I think a rate point.” Aug 10,

July 16, 2024 cut could be on the 2024

table at the

September meeting.”

July 31, 2024

John Williams, New Thomas Barkin,

York Fed President, Richmond Fed

permanent President, 2024

voter: April to voter: “You’ve

June data “seems to got some time

be getting us in a healthy

closer to a economy to

disinflationary figure out

trend that we’re whether this is

looking for. I an economy

would like to see that’s gently

more data to gain moving into a

further normalizing

confidence.” July state that will

17, 2024 allow you to,

in a steady

deliberate way,

normalize rates

or … is this

one where you

really do have

to lean into

it.” Aug 8,

2024

Philip Jefferson,

Vice Chair: “It is Jeffrey Schmid,

too early to tell Kansas City Fed

whether the recent President, 2025

slowdown in the voter: “If

disinflationary inflation

process will be continues to

long-lasting. The come in low, my

better reading for confidence will

April is grow that we

encouraging.” May are on track to

20, 2024 meet the price

stability part

of our mandate,

and it will be

appropriate to

adjust the

stance of

policy.” Aug 8,

2024

Michael Barr, Vice Lorie Logan,

Chair of Dallas Fed

Supervision, President, 2026

permanent voter: voter: “We’re

“We will need to going to need

allow our to see several

restrictive policy more months of

some further time that data to

to continue its really have

work.” May 20, 2024 confidence in

our outlook

that we’re

heading to 2%.”

June 18, 2024

Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari,

Governor, permanent Minneapolis Fed

voter: “I believe President, 2026

the time to lower voter: “We’re

the policy rate is in a very good

drawing closer.” position right

July 17, 2024. now to take our

time, get more

inflation data,

get more data

on the economy,

on the labor

market, before

we have to make

any decisions.”

June 16, 2024

Lisa Cook,

Governor, permanent

voter: “We are very

attentive to what

is happening with

the unemployment

rate … The

situation could

change very quickly

and we would be

responsive.” July

10, 2024

Mary Daly, San

Francisco Fed

President, 2024

voter: “Our minds

are quite open to

adjusting the

policy rate in

coming meetings.”

Aug 5, 2024

Raphael

Bostic, Atlanta Fed

President, 2024

voter: “I’m open to

something happening

in terms of us

moving

before the fourth

quarter

.” Aug

15, 2024

Alberto

Musalem, St. Louis

Fed President, 2025

voter: “It now

appears the balance

of risks on

inflation and

unemployment has

shifted …

the

time may be nearing

when

an adjustment to

moderately

restrictive policy

may be

appropriate.” Aug

15, 2024

Austan Goolsbee,

Chicago Fed

President, 2025

voter: “We’re

tight…if we are

too tight for too

long, we’re going

to have to come to

grips with what

that’s going to do

to the real side of

the economy.” Aug

8, 2024.

Susan Collins,

Boston Fed

President, 2025

voter: “If the data

continue the way

that I expect, I do

believe that it

will be appropriate

soon to begin

adjusting policy

and easing how

restrictive the

policy is.” Aug 9,

2024

Patrick Harker,

Philadelphia Fed

President, 2026

voter: “If all of

it happens to be as

forecasted, I think

one rate cut would

be appropriate by

year’s end.” June

17, 2024

Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July 2023. As of June 2024, seven policymakers were at the median forecast for one rate cut this year; eight policymakers thought two rate cuts this year would be appropriate; and four thought none would be. The June meeting was the last for Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who retired at the end of June; Beth Hammack, her successor, starts Aug. 21 and will vote at the Fed’s September meeting. Neither is included in this dove-hawk matrix.

The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Sept ’24 0 1 12 5 0

Apr/May; June; July ’24 0 1 10 6 1

March ’24 0 1 11 5 1

Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1

Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3