Fed could cut rates next week as selloff suggests more support needed: Nomura

By Yasin Ebrahim

Investing.com — The Federal Reserve could cut rates at its meeting next week and suspend its quantitative tightening program as the market selloff suggests the central bank needs to do more to restore confidence in the financial system, according to Nomura.

“In reaction to looming risks to financial stability, we now expect the Fed to cut rates,” Nomura said in a note, according to Bloomberg.

The Fed is also expected to “halt quantitative tightening,” Nomura added, pointing to the selloff as a sign that the Fed needs to do more to restore confidence in the banking system.

Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (NASDAQ:), the U.S. government and Federal Reserve stepped to rescue the beleaguered banks, agreeing to backstop all depositors.

The Fed also launched a new funding program offering loans with maturities of up to year. Stocks ended the day lower, driven by more than 3% plunge in financials led by banks including First Republic.

The rate cut call from Nomura is a bold one as it comes as continue to expect the Fed to hike in March, with the bulk of market participants pointing to ongoing signs of sticky inflation.

“We are continuing to stick to our call for another 25bps hike next week,” MUFG said in a note, pointing to the most recent jobs report showing that inflation remains sticky.

“There is little evidence yet that higher rates have triggered a sufficient slowdown in employment growth to satisfy the Fed that it has done enough,” MUFG said in a note.

Others, meanwhile, are opting for the middle ground, backing a pause on hikes. Barclays, and Goldman Sachs called for pause, with the latter citing stress in the banking system.

“In light of the stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its next meeting on March 22,” Goldman said in a note on Sunday.

For some, however, the turmoil in banking may prove temporary, and the main focus for the Fed will swiftly return to inflation.

“With the Fed increasingly concerned about the directional momentum of inflation, any upside surprise will likely solidify the need for the Fed to continue with ongoing rate hikes,” Stifel said ahead of the inflation report due Tuesday.

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