Favorable investing backdrop for UK – JPMorgan

Investing.com – U.K. equity markets struggled last year, but are holding up better in 2024 in the European context, according to JPMorgan, and look set to offer more upside going forward.

“We think the backdrop for UK equities is looking favorable, on attractive valuations, improved political clarity and potentially lower bond yields, making dividend yields more attractive again,” said analysts at the U.S. investment bank, in a note dated July 29.

At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the benchmark traded 0.9% higher, up 8% year-to-date, having hit an all-time high in the middle of May, earlier this year. 

The more domestically-focused rose 0.2%, and has gained approximately 8.7% so far this year. 

JPMorgan’s core view remains that bond yields are likely to move lower, with the Bank of England holding its latest policy-setting meeting on Thursday.

“If that view gains further traction, it will benefit higher yielding defensive markets, and the U.K., at 4.1%, has the highest dividend yield out of all large DMs [developed markets],” JPMorgan said, adding “notably, the U.K. dividend payout ratio is at only 45%, 12 months trailing, vs historical 60%.”

Additionally, the elections event risk is behind us, and the new government is likely to provide more fiscal credibility and stability, with focus on domestic agenda, homebuilding and the consumer. 

“Broadly, the beneficiaries stand to be Banks, Homebuilders, Real Estate and Utilities, while on the negative side we have Diversified Financials, E&P and Transportation,” the bank said.

At 11.5x forward P/E, the U.K. is trading near the lows relative to other markets, JPMorgan added.

After having a preference over the past two and a half years for U.K. large caps over small caps, we reiterate last month’s reversal of this stance, and our new overweight FTSE 250 over FTSE 100 view. 

“Meaningful past underperformance, cheaper valuations, likely start of BoE rate cuts, stronger domestic activity momentum, as well as more favorable domestic policies of the new administration, are some of the supports,” the bank added.