Factbox-Republicans flip moderate Democrat’s Iowa district, Edison Research projects

By Moira Warburton

(Reuters) – It was still unclear on Wednesday afternoon whether Republicans or Democrats would emerge from U.S. midterm elections with control of the House of Representatives.

Republicans had flipped several seats, and appeared poised to win the House. But with dozens of races still to be called, any Democratic pickups could narrow their potential majority. They need to gain a net of five seats to take the chamber from President Joe Biden’s Democrats.

Here are twelve races that strategists and pollsters from both parties are watching closely:

IOWA’S 3RD DISTRICT

Republican Zach Nunn, a state senator and former Air Force pilot, has defeated Democrat Cindy Axne, a moderate who rode the Democrats’ 2018 midterms “blue wave” to victory. Redistricting made the district slightly more Republican this year. The issues of abortion and inflation dominated the race.

ARIZONA’S 2ND DISTRICT

Republican Eli Crane, a former Navy SEAL who in September 2021 called on Arizona’s legislature to decertify Biden’s win in 2020, defeated Democratic incumbent Tom O’Halleran.

O’Halleran faced a difficult race after his district covering much of the eastern half of the state was redrawn to include more Republican voters.

NEW YORK’S 17TH DISTRICT

Incumbent Democratic Representative Sean Patrick Maloney suffered a shock loss against Republican state lawmaker Michael Lawler in this Hudson (NYSE:) County seat. Maloney is the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s U.S. House campaign arm, and ousting him was a major bright spot for Republicans.

It was the first time the head of a House campaign arm lost their seat since 1980, reflecting a strong statewide surge for Republicans in New York.

RHODE ISLAND’S 2ND DISTRICT

State treasurer Seth Magaziner held onto this seat for Democrats against Republican Allan Fung, a local mayor, in an unexpectedly competitive race. The district had voted Democratic since 1991, but Fung gained national attention running as a moderate, campaigning heavily on inflation.

OHIO’S 9TH DISTRICT

Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur held off perhaps the toughest challenge of her nearly 40-year history in the Toledo-area district, from Republican J.R. Majewski.

She was widely expected to lose her seat to Majewski, a vocal Trump advocate who was at the U.S. Capitol during the riot on Jan. 6, 2021, after Republicans redrew the district. But an Associated Press report that he misrepresented his military career caused Republicans to pull their advertising for him.

VIRGINIA’S 2ND DISTRICT

Republican state senator Jen Kiggans defeated incumbent Democratic U.S. House Representative Elaine Luria for this military-heavy district centered on Virginia Beach.

Luria, a retired naval commander, drew national attention for her work on the committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Congress. Kiggans campaigned heavily on the issue of inflation.

KANSAS’S 3RD DISTRICT

Democrat Sharice Davids held her district against Amanda Adkins, a former chair of the state Republican party.

Davids faced a tough race after Republicans redrew the suburban Kansas City district to include more rural, conservative-leaning areas. However, the national debate over abortion appeared to have worked in her favor: Voters in this conservative state in August rejected a constitutional amendment that would have banned the procedure.

FLORIDA’S 13TH DISTRICT

Republican Anna Paulina Luna, a U.S. Air Force veteran, flipped Florida’s 13th district, beating Democrat Eric Lynn, a former Obama administration official.

This suburban Tampa district was one of several Democratic-held seats in Florida that Republicans were likely to pick up, thanks to a new district map backed by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.

ALASKA’S AT-LARGE DISTRICT

Democrat Mary Peltola won a surprise victory in an August special election, beating two Republicans: former Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich. Republicans objected to Alaska’s new system of “ranked choice” voting, in which voters list candidates in order of preference, although Peltola would have won even under the old system as she got the most votes. Peltola had jumped out to a commanding lead as of Wednesday, but the race was not yet called.

CALIFORNIA’S 22ND DISTRICT

Republican Representative David Valadao was one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in his second trial. He is now facing a tough challenge from Democratic state representative Rudy Salas in a Central Valley district that has been redrawn substantially since the last election.

MAINE’S 2ND DISTRICT

Democratic Representative Jared Golden narrowly won this mostly rural district in 2018. Now, he will face Republican Bruce Poliquin, who formerly held the seat. Golden is a moderate Democrat who often distances himself from party leadership, while Poliquin is emphasizing hot-button issues like immigration and gun rights, rather than the fiscal topics he ran on before. Two independent candidates have not drawn significant support but could be a factor because Maine, like Alaska, uses ranked choice voting.

OREGON’S 5TH DISTRICT

Democratic voters ousted moderate incumbent Kurt Schrader in a primary election in favor of progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner. But some analysts have said the district, which includes suburbs of Portland and Salem, leans Republican. McLeod-Skinner faces Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a former mayor of Happy Valley, a Portland suburb.

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