Factbox-Most brokerages expect Fed to hold rates steady in January meeting
2024.12.30 08:01
(Reuters) -Major brokerages, including BofA and Goldman Sachs, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming January meeting, after the central bank delivered a quarter-percentage-point cut in December.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation. His remarks indicated policymakers were starting to consider the prospects for sweeping economic changes under a Trump administration.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Jan 2025 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays (LON:) No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Goldman Sachs No rate cut 75 (through 3.50%-3.75% (through
September September 2025)
2025)
J.P.Morgan No rate cut 75(through 3.75% (through
September September 2025)
2025)
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) No rate cut 50 (through 3.75%-4.00% (through
June 2025) June 2025)
Nomura No rate cut 25 4.00%-4.25% (through
end of 2025)
*UBS Global No rate cut 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:) No rate cut No Rate 4.25%-4.50%
Cuts
Societe No rate cut – 3.00%-3.25% (by
Generale early 2026)
ING No rate cut 75 3.75% – 4.00%
Macquarie No rate cut 25 4.00%-4.25%
UBS Global No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Wealth 2025)
Management
Peel Hunt No rate cut 50 3.50%-4.00%
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
