Factbox-How Wall Street firms see US jobless rate shaping Fed rate cut
2024.09.06 00:50
(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing costs at its upcoming meeting Sept. 17-18 and the strength of the job market is likely to be a deciding factor on whether it delivers a quarter-of-a-percentage-point cut or a bigger half-point cut.
Below is a sampling of Wall Street banks’ forecasts for the August employment report along with their expectations for the size of the Fed’s rate cut later this month. Banks’ baseline forecasts are indicated in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS.
Some banks have also roughed out what they think the Fed could do under a range of possible readings in Friday’s labor market report. Fed policy rate forecasts provided under these alternative scenarios are indicated with an *asterisk* in the table.
Overall, economists polled by Reuters estimate the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, from 4.3% in July, and payrolls rose by 160,000, up from July’s 114,000. Employment data will be released 0830 ET (1230 GMT) on Friday.
IF jobless payrolls Fed will cut by Fed will cut by
rate is AND gain is 25 bps 50 bps
4.2%
4.2% 100K-124K Citi*
4.2% 125K-149K NOMURA Bank of America*
EY
Evercore ISI*
Citi*
4.2% 150K-174K OXFORD ECONOMICS
DEUTSCHE BANK
4.2% 175K-199K JEFFERIES
BARCLAYS
MORGAN STANLEY
4.2% 200K plus TD SECURITIES
BANK OF AMERICA
4.3%
4.3% 125K-149K Bank of America* CITI
Nomura*
4.3% 150K-174K Evercore ISI* Citi*
ING Economics*
4.3% 175K-199K Citi*
4.4%
Bank of America*
4.4% 175K-199K Evercore ISI*
4.4% 200K plus Evercore ISI*
