Factbox-Brokerages see ‘uncertain’ 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs
2024.11.20 08:48
(Reuters) – Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.
World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.
Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage US 10-year
target yield target
UBS Global 6400 3.80 1.04 157.0 7.60
Research
Goldman Sachs 6500 (next 4.25%(next 1.03(next 159(next 7.50(next
12-months) 12-months) 12-months 12-months 12-months)
) )
Nomura 135 6.93
Barclays (LON:)
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) 6500
J.P.Morgan 4.10 (Q3’25)
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.4%
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%
Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (4Q/4Q)
Barclays 2.3% 2.5%
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA
UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for
Research FY 26)
Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.3% 6.3%
Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%
Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%
(FY25/FY2
6)
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%
Citigroup (NYSE:) 1.1% 1.0%
Nomura 4.0% 6.9%
