Factbox-Brokerages see uncertain 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs
2024.12.17 09:50
(Reuters) – Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.
World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.
Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage U.S. 10-year
target yield target
UBS Global 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60
Research
Goldman 6500 4.25% 1.03(next 159(next 7.50(next
Sachs 12-months) 12-months 12-months)
)
UBS Global 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo (NYSE:) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162
Investment
Institute
Societe 6750 4.50% (Q4’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28
Generale
Deutsche 7000 4.7% (Q4’25) 1.03 (Q4’25) 7.50
Bank
Nomura 135 6.93
4.25% 1.03
Morgan 6500 3.55% (Q4’25) 1.10 (Q4’25) 138 7.60
Stanley (Q4’25) (Q4’25)
J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50
BofA Global 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40
Research
Wells Fargo 4.00% 0.98 (Q4’25) 154 7.60
(Q4’25) (Q4’25)
BMO Capital 6700
Markets
Jefferies 6000 4.43%
Barclays (LON:) 6600 4.25%
Piper 6600
Sandler
Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20
BNP Paribas (OTC:) 3.65% (Q4’25) 1.15 (Q4’25) 131
(Q4’25)
Canaccord 6325
Genuity
Citigroup (NYSE:) 6500 4.20% (Q4’25)
ING 1.02 160 7.35
HSBC 6700
Evercore 6800
ISI
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) 2.3% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)
Barclays 2.3% 2.5%
Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%
Societe Generale (OTC:) 2.3% 2.5%
Deutsche Bank (ETR:) 2.8% (Q4/Q4) 2.6% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo 3.3%
Investment
Institute
UBS Global 2.6%
Wealth
Management
Citigroup 2.5%
2.5%
BofA Global 2.4% 2.3%
Research (Q4/Q4)
Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%
BNP Paribas 2.3%
Nomura 2.7%
3.0%
ING 2.4%
Wells Fargo 2.6%
Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%
UBS
Global Research 2.5%
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA
UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for
Research FY 26)
Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.2% 6.3%
Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%
Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%
(FY25/FY2
6)
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%
UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%
Management
Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%
Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%
Citigroup 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.7%
Nomura 2.2 4.0% 1.0% 5.8%
2.9% 1.1%
BofA Global 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.9%
Research 1.5% 7.0%
Deutsche Bank 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%
Wells Fargo 2.5%
Investment 2.6%
Institute
Berenberg 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 6.5%
2.6% 1.3%
BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%
(March
2026)
Peel Hunt 1.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 7.0%
ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%
Jefferies 2.4%
(Q4/Q4)
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
