Explainer-What OPEC+ oil output cuts are already in place and what could change

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC are scheduled to meet online on Thursday and could make further changes to an agreement that already limits supply into 2024, according to analysts and OPEC+ sources, to support the market.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, delayed the meeting from Nov. 26. OPEC+ sources said this was because of a disagreement over output levels for African producers, although sources have since said the group has moved closer to a compromise on this issue.

OPEC+ negotiations over production quotas have often been difficult in the past, most recently at their June meeting.

WHAT IS AGREED ALREADY?

OPEC+ after long negotiations in June extended oil output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, until the end of 2024.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is making a 1 million-bpd voluntary reduction in output until the end of December 2023. A Russian cut in oil exports of 300,000 bpd also lasts until the end of 2023.

The group aims to produce a combined 40.58 million bpd next year after adjusting baselines and targets for several countries versus levels used this year.

Targets for several African members were reduced for 2024 to bring them in line with declining production levels. The agreement also allows the United Arab Emirates, which has been boosting its production capacity, to increase output in 2024.

Current OPEC+ production levels as of October 2023 stand at 38.19 million bpd and they include the additional voluntary cuts by Saudi and Russia amounting to 1.3 million bpd. It is not clear if those cuts would be extended into 2024.

WHAT MORE COULD THEY DO ON THURSDAY?

An OPEC+ source said he expected there to be an option for a “collective further reduction” on Thursday, without providing details. OPEC+ sources earlier this month said the group was set to consider additional cuts.

OPEC+ could further revise 2024 targets for Nigeria, Angola and Congo after reviews by outside analysts, it said in June. Angola and Congo are pumping below their 2024 targets due to falling capacity, while Nigeria has moved closer to, or surpassed its 2024 target in recent months according to some assessments.

Some analysts, including Energy Aspects, have said they expect Saudi Arabia to extend its 1 million bpd voluntary cut to at least the first quarter of 2024.

The following table shows OPEC+ production and targets in 2023-2024 in million barrels per day:

Country October May-Dec. May-Dec. 2023 2024 Implied 2024

2023 2023 targets with targets target with

output* targets voluntary cuts** voluntary cuts^

Algeria 0.96 1.007 0.959 1.007 0.959

Angola 1.15 1.455 1.455 1.28 1.28

Congo 0.26 0.31 0.31 0.276 0.276

Equatorial 0.06 0.121 0.121 0.07 0.07

Guinea

Gabon 0.22 0.177 0.169 0.177 0.169

Iraq 4.38 4.431 4.22 4.431 4.22

Kuwait 2.57 2.676 2.548 2.676 2.548

Nigeria 1.35 1.742 1.742 1.38 1.38

Saudi 9.01 10.478 9.978 10.478 9.978

Arabia

UAE 3.25 3.019 2.875 3.219 3.075

Azerbaijan 0.49 0.684 0.684 0.551 0.551

Kazakhstan 1.63 1.628 1.55 1.628 1.55

Mexico 1.67 1.753 1.753 1.753 1.753

Oman 0.8 0.841 0.801 0.841 0.801

Russia*** 9.53 10.478 9.5 9.949 9.449

Bahrain*** 0.85 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.196

*

Brunei 0.097 0.097 0.083 0.083

Malaysia 0.567 0.567 0.401 0.401

South 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124

Sudan

Sudan 0.072 0.072 0.064 0.064

Total 23.21 25.416 24.377 24.994 23.955

OPEC-10

Total 14.98 16.44 15.344 15.59 14.972

Non-OPEC

Total 38.19 41.856 39.721 40.584 38.927

OPEC+

* IEA figures

** Excludes Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 million bpd voluntary cut from July 2023 to December 2023.

. *** Russia’s 500,000 bpd voluntary cut is from March 2023 to December 2024 to around 9.5 million bpd, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Russia’s 2024 target is based on a revision announced by OPEC on June 13.

**** Figure is total for Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan

^ Includes extra voluntary cuts when announced

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