Explainer-France’s Barnier likely to ram through budget bill as talks stall
2024.11.19 09:17
PARIS (Reuters) – France’s 2025 belt-tightening budget heads to the Senate next week, but few doubt the government will soon be obliged to bypass lawmakers with a risky constitutional measure that rams the legislation through parliament.
With French public finances increasingly out of control, the 2025 budget bill seeks to squeeze 60 billion euros in savings via tax hikes and spending cuts. The aim is to cut the deficit to 5% of economic output next year from over 6% this year.
Lacking a majority in the deeply divided parliament, Prime Minister Michel Barnier told L’Ouest France newspaper last week that he did not see how the budget could be passed without invoking article 49.3 of the constitution.
The 49.3, famously used by the previous government to push through President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform against a backdrop of street protests, allows the text to be adopted without a vote – but usually also triggers a no-confidence motion against the government.
Barnier’s weak coalition is propped up by the far-right National Rally (RN), which could join forces with the left to topple his government, making the 49.3 a risky option for him.
So far, Barnier has decided to let parliament go through the movements of reviewing and debating the budget before he calls time in order to give lawmakers the impression he is not riding roughshod over their role as legislators.
But with a vote on the overall budget scheduled for Dec. 12, Barnier’s patience may be wearing thin.
Below is a run-down on the state of France’s budget negotiations.
WHERE DOES THE BUDGET LEGISLATION STAND?
In an unprecedented move for modern France, a majority of lawmakers in the lower house of parliament rejected the government’s 2025 budget bill last week after leftist lawmakers heavily revised the legislation.
A left-wing alliance, which has the single biggest block of seats but falls far short of a lower house majority, had added 75 billion euros ($79 billion) in new tax hikes to the bill.
Budget Minister Laurent Saint Martin described the additional tax burden as unacceptable “Frankenstein” legislation that would violate the constitution and EU fiscal rules alike.
The rejection means the Senate will begin its review of the government’s original, unamended bill on Monday Nov. 25. ahead of the final vote on Dec. 12.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?
Senate finance committee chair Claude Raynal has said the upper house, where Barnier’s conservatives have the most seats but fall short of a majority, would likely make fewer changes to the bill than the lower house.
After the senate vote, a panel of lawmakers from both houses will then have to try to agree on a new version of the bill, but with little time for sweeping revisions.
As that version would likely be rejected again in the full lower house, the government will then have little choice but to invoke article 49.3 of the constitution to ram the budget through without a vote.
WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF BYPASSING PARLIAMENT?
Left-wing lawmakers in the lower house have said they would then trigger a vote of no-confidence against the government, which could potentially bring it down if it passes.
To survive, Barnier needs the far-right RN to abstain from the vote. While some RN lawmakers have brandished the threat of not cooperating, its head Jordan Bardella has said the decision will depend on whether the final cut of the budget reflects their demands.
The RN will also have to make a political calculation about whether it gains anything from triggering a political crisis as new legislative elections cannot be held before next summer.
Still, a recent request by prosecutors for RN leader Marine Le Pen to face an obligatory five-year ban from politics for her alleged role in embezzlement of EU funds may cause the RN to reassess its loyalty to propping up Barnier’s administration, some analysts have suggested. Le Pen denies the allegations.
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