Evercore on US election: ‘A very close race decided by a handful of voters in 6-7 states’

As the US election approaches, Evercore ISI analysts predict an exceptionally tight race, with the outcome likely determined by a small number of voters in six or seven states.

The bank said in a note Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate next week, with the Democratic National Committee’s deadline for the virtual roll call set for August 7.

The remaining candidates under consideration for the vice-presidential slot include Senator Mark Kelly (AZ), Governor Josh Shapiro (PA), Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Governor Tim Walz (MN), and Governor Andy Beshear (KY).

“These candidates are on the list based on the hope they might help broaden the appeal of the ticket, particularly with white voters in the Midwest – voters that President Biden traditionally appealed to,” wrote Evercore ISI.

Evercore notes that the Harris campaign is focused on selecting a running mate who will do no harm, especially following negative media coverage of Republican VP nominee JD (NASDAQ:) Vance.

They state that in recent days, Harris has made significant strides, raising over $200 million, recruiting 360,000 new volunteers, and energizing young and non-white voters.

Evercore notes that early polls indicate that the race is tightening. However, they believe Harris faces several crucial moments ahead, including her VP pick and the Democratic convention, where she will have a major opportunity to define herself.

Despite controversies surrounding Vance, Evercore ISI analysts believe it is unlikely that President Trump will drop him from the ticket due to the political cost of such a move.

According to the firm, given the recent historic events in the race, the final landscape may take a few weeks to determine.

Ultimately, Evercore ISI concludes that we are likely to see “a very close race decided by a handful of voters in six or maybe seven states.”

Evercore concluded: ” Trump still has more paths in the electoral college, but certainly Democrats have improved their chances in the last two weeks.”