Euro Skids After Soft PMI Data, Markets Eye ISM Mfg. PMI

06/23/2023

2 minutes read

2023.06.23 09:54

MarketPulse

Eurozone and German PMIs weakened in June
EUR/USD fell as much as 110 pips on Friday

has taken a tumble on Friday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0885, down 0.64%. The euro fell as low as 1.0844 earlier in the day. Later today, the US releases ISM Services PMI. The consensus stands at 54.0 for June, following 54.9 in May. The services sector is in solid shape and the ISM Services PMI has posted four straight readings over the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction.

Eurozone, German PMIs fall in June

Eurozone PMIs for June pointed to weaker activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. The Services PMI eased to 52.4, down from 55.1 in May and below the consensus of 54.5 points. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.6, down from the May reading of 44.8 which was also the consensus. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, showed a similar trend, with Services PMI falling from 54.7 to 54.1 and Manufacturing PMI dropping from 43.5 to 41.0 points. The 50 line separates contraction from expansion.

The takeaway from these numbers is that the eurozone economy is cooling down. Business activity is still growing but at a weaker pace, while the manufacturing recession has deepened. The eurozone economy is yet to recover after negative growth in the past two quarters, as the ECB’s aggressive tightening makes its way through the economy.

At first glance, the weak PMI readings should be good news for the ECB, which is trying to dampen economic growth in order to wrestle inflation back down to the 2% target. However, inflation remains very high at 6% and further tightening could tip the weak eurozone economy into a recession.

The ECB’s efforts to push inflation lower have been made more difficult, as unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth is high. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, isn’t the power locomotive that it once was and is still in recovery mode. The ECB has signalled that it will hike rates in July and another increase could be coming in September unless inflation decelerates more quickly.

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