EUR/USD: Surprise Bear Breakout

2022.06.14 16:41

EUR/USD Daily Chart

• EUR/USD bears have three consecutive bear bars creating a surprise bear breakout. The odds are the bears will get a couple of legs sideways to down.
• Bears will try hard to break below the May 13 low soon.
• Bulls hope the three consecutive bear bars will lead to a 2nd leg trap, and the market will test the top of the 2nd leg (June 9). The bulls will likely need a micro double bottom before traders are willing to buy for a swing up.
• Bears want a break below the May 13 low which would be a breakout below the neckline of a higher high double top (May 5 as the first push and May 31 as the second push). Next, they want the double top to lead to a measured move down, which takes us below 1.0000. While this is possible, it is unlikely at the moment.
• The odds favor continued trading range price action. However, the bulls will need to develop more buying pressure to erase the damage done by the three consecutive bear bars.  
• While it is possible the bears get the measured move down, the market will probably continue to go sideways and at some point, reach the April 21 high as well as the March 31 high. Again, the bulls need to develop more buying pressure first.
• Also, the market came within 10 – 15 pips of the 2017 low on May 13, so the market may have to fall below it to see if there are more buyers than sellers at the 2017 low.

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