EUR/USD Stabilizes After Slide, FOMC Minutes Loom

01/03/2024

2 minutes read

2024.01.03 06:34

MarketPulse

Euro slips to two-week low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to rise slightly
FOMC minutes to be released later on Wednesday
Germany, Eurozone to release CPI on Thursday

The euro has steadied on Wednesday after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, is trading at 1.0932, down 0.08% and its lowest level since December 21.

The has been struggling in recent weeks but came flying out of the gates on Tuesday, the first trading day of the New Year. The euro fell 0.88% against the dollar, its worst one-day showing since October. The dollar’s spike could be due to profit-taking as the data calendar was light on Tuesday and the dollar gained ground against all of the major currencies.

It’s a busy day for US releases after a lull during the week of Christmas. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 47.1 for December, compared to 46.7 in November. The manufacturing sector has been in a miserable slump and hasn’t shown expansion since October 2022. Manufacturers have been squeezed by weak demand abroad and high borrowing costs. With the Fed expected to start cutting rates in March, we could see manufacturing respond with increased business activity.

The Federal Reserve releases the FOMC meeting of the December meeting later today. The meeting was highly significant as the Fed surprised the markets by failing to push back against rate-cut fever. The Fed signalled that it expected to trim rates three times in 2024, a major pivot from the well-worn script of ‘higher for longer’. Investors will be looking for details about the shift in Fed policy which has boosted the equity markets and weighed on the US dollar.

Germany and the eurozone will post the December inflation reports on Thursday. Last week, Spain posted lower-than-expected inflation numbers. Inflation has eased to 3.2% in Germany and 2.4% in the eurozone, as the ECB’s target of 2% is getting closer. Will the December numbers show inflation continues to fall? If so, the European Central Bank will be under pressure to lower rates. ECB President Lagarde has so far dismissed talk of rate cuts, but she may need to shift her hawkish stance if inflation continues to fall, as the eurozone economy is struggling and could use some relief in the form of rate cuts.

EUR/USD-4-Hour Chart