EUR-USD reached a maximum in 5 months
2022.12.02 03:40
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EUR-USD reached a maximum in 5 months
Budrigannews.com – For someone who will be subjected to serious tests this Friday during the last few days, the last days of the week can be decisive. In fact, investors are expecting November US employment data because the currency reached its highest levels since July 29 at 1.0539 last night.
It is important to note that at today’s Fed meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the possibility of raising the Fed at the next FOMC meeting more slowly.
In addition, although the market expected a significant increase in rates by 50 basis points before Powell spoke about a “reversal” – compared to 75 basis points at the last four meetings – the fact that the Federal Reserve is preparing for a “reversal” has nevertheless intensified, which affected the advantage of the EURO.
Since the ECB President believes that economic policy at the ECB is complicated by uncertainty, and that Central Banks should continue to work to return to targets, Christine Lagarde’s remark did not stop the rally that night. The current dynamics of the EUR/USD pair largely depends on how the number of workers in the US will grow in November.
The average hourly wage is expected to rise to 4.6 on an annual basis from 4.7 a month earlier, according to the consensus forecast, and jobs are expected to slow down to 200,000 from 261,000. It is expected that unemployment will remain at 3.7.
If we talk about how these data can affect the euro and the dollar, then negative news should theoretically strengthen expectations that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate increases, which will affect the dollar and help the euro and dollar pair.
At the same time, the dollar may rise in response to the NFP report, which is expected to be stronger than expected, but it is unlikely to become important enough to seriously undermine the possibility of a Fed reversal in December.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair has broken through the 200-day moving average of 1.0366, which the currency pair has been trying to maintain since the first test, which took place in mid-December.
Also, the eurodollar has now restored more than half of the trend in the downward trend of 2022, which occurred in the period from 09/28/20 to 10.02.
And last but not least, area 1. 06-1. In 0640, when there were a number of reversals of bulls and bears in April, May, June, it will be the next obstacle that should be considered if the uptrend continues.
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