EUR/USD Holds on to Gains Above 1.0300 in a Quiet Start to the Week

2022.11.15 03:08

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The pair retreated slightly to start the week after hitting three-month highs on Friday on lower-than-expected U.S. data.

The recouped some ground on Monday as the market mood turned cautious. Still, the euro is above the 1.0300 mark, supported by upbeat Eurozone data.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0323, down 0.29% on the daily loss after bottoming at a daily low of 1.0271 earlier in the session.

Eurostat reported the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.9% in both the euro area and the EU in September, above the consensus of 0.3%. It’s worth noting that both the ECB and the European Commission already signaled that they are expecting the euro area to tip into a recession in the last quarter of the year. In that sense, upbeat economic activity data relieves the euro.

On the other hand, the greenback is gaining some traction after last week’s 4% decline triggered by the investors scaling back bets for one more 75 bps for the Fed meeting in December after the softer-than-expected October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a positive short-term bias according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price consolidates after last week’s steep gains. The RSI has corrected overbought readings, while the MACD prints higher green bars.

On the upside, the 1.0365-70 area, which capped the rally last Friday and back in August, is the critical short-term resistance level to overcome. If the euro accomplishes such a task, the following upside targets are seen at the 200-day SMA at 1.0432, followed by the 1.0500 psychological level.

On the downside, support levels are at 1.0200, followed by the 1.0030 zone, where the 20- and 100-day SMAs are close to making a bullish cross.

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