EUR/USD determines the direction ignoring the data
2022.11.30 11:48
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EUR/USD determines the direction ignoring the data
Budrigannews.com – The positive inflation surprise in Europe had little effect on the pair. The preliminary for November came in at 10%, which was lower than the expected 10.4% and the previous month’s 10.6%.
The fact that was in line with the consensus and stable at 5% in comparison to the previous month partially explains the EUR/USD’s lack of response. Additionally, the unexpectedly increased to 6.6%, up from 6.3% anticipated and 6.4% previously.
To put it another way, the apparent good news of lower-than-anticipated inflation hides a more complicated context that reveals that the decline in inflation is primarily caused by energy and food, indicating that the tide could quickly turn.
The ECB may therefore take the current inflation figures with a grain of salt and not conclude that they are beginning to prevail against inflation.
As a result, the Euro-Dollar pair currently stands at 1.0380, whereas it was trading around 1.0358 prior to the release.
Wednesday’s EUR/USD will be influenced by a number of US statistics.
EUR/USD traders are now focusing on the United States, which has a packed schedule of economic events this afternoon, beginning with the November U.S. at 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT). After creating 239 jobs last month, economists anticipate creating 200k more this month.
The agenda also includes and a consensus forecast of 2.7% quarterly growth, up from 2.6% previously.
The index of household consumption, a measure of inflation that the Fed is very interested in, will also be released in the GDP report.
The 200-day MA for EUR/USD
From a chart perspective, many traders are keeping a close eye on the 200-day moving average, which is shown in blue on the chart below. The 200-day moving average has been tested a number of times over the past few weeks, but EUR/USD has failed to hold above it.
At present, at 1.0373, this 200-day moving normal is a prompt obstacle for the cash pair, in front of the mental edge of 1.04 and afterward Monday’s high at 1.0497. Before the November 21 low of 1.0223, the psychological threshold of 1.03 will be the first potential support in the event of a correction.
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