Ethereum traders pricing in ‘more extreme movements’ ahead of US election
2024.10.03 08:24
Traders are anticipating much more significant price swings for Ether (ETH) compared to Bitcoin (BTC), with significant macroeconomic events on the horizon, according to a crypto analyst.
Derive founder Nick Forster pointed out in an Oct. 2 analyst note viewed by Cointelegraph that there is an anticipated spike in Ether forward volatility—which is the expected future volatility of Ether’s price—from Oct. 25 to Nov. 8, coinciding with the United States presidential election on Nov. 5.
US election to have “significant impact” on ETH price
Forster highlighted that the US election may have a “significant impact” on the price of ETH due to its ties with the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, which may “face regulatory scrutiny” depending on whether a pro-crypto candidate is elected president.
ETH v BTC at-the-money implied volatility chart. Source: Derive
According to Derive data, traders forecast a 68% chance of a price swing between -14% and +16% by three days after the US election on Nov. 8, with a 95% chance of a move ranging from -26% to +35%.
At the time of publication, ETH forward volatility is 76.6%, while BTC is 69.8%. “This indicates that traders are expecting significant movement around this period, with ETH appearing more sensitive to external events,” Forster claimed.
Is Bitcoin less vulnerable to macro events?
He further explained that traders seem more confident in Bitcoin’s ability to weather these macro events,
“likely due to its established position as a digital store of value and its relatively less direct exposure to regulatory concerns compared to Ethereum.”
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Now, with broader ecosystem concerns depending on who is elected in the US, traders are pricing “more extreme movements” for ETH, according to Forster.
“This data signals that ETH’s heightened volatility is a direct reflection of traders’ expectations for increased uncertainty, especially as we approach the US election,” he added.
Ether is down 5.93% over the past 24 hours. Source: TradingView
At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $2,364, down 5.93% since Oct. 2. Despite the much-awaited Ether ETF launch in July, the historical debut has not bolstered Ether’s price.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
