Ethereum falls to 42-month lows versus Bitcoin — Is the bottom close?
2024.10.25 08:48
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), continues losing its strength against Bitcoin (BTC), with the ETH/BTC pair treading around 0.0365 BTC as of Oct. 25, its lowest level since April 2021.
ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Underwhelming exchange-traded fund launches, as well as increasing competition with smart contracts rival Solana (SOL) has sapped traders’ appetite for Ethereum in 2024.
These factors may continue pressuring ETH/BTC lower in the coming months, with technical indicators further hinting the same.
ETH price may see another 15% drop
Ether’s ongoing price declines are occurring as what appears to be the breakdown stage of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern.
It started with an upward trend that peaks and then forms a rounded top, resembling an upside-down U-shaped “cup.” After the inverse cup, there was a smaller and temporary rebound (handle), forming a consolidation period that trends slightly upward or sideways.
Related: Ethereum ICO participant dumps 3,000 ETH for $7.6M cash out
An IC&H pattern typically resolves when the price breaks below its neckline support and falls to a level at a length equal to the maximum distance between the cup’s peak and the neckline.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
As of Oct. 25, ETH/BTC had entered the same breakdown stage, eyeing its downside target of around 0.0319 BTC, down by over 15% from current prices.
Ethereum bulls pin hopes on 25-50% rebound
Ethereum may enter a new bull cycle versus Bitcoin after dropping to the IC&H pattern target, which closely aligns with the bearish setup shared by Aksel Kibar, a chartered market technician and former fund manager.
Kibar anticipates the ETH/BTC pair to decline toward 0.0290 BTC, calling it a key “inflection point” whose previous test as support in 2021 followed a 200% rally.
ETH/BTC monthly chart. Source: Aksel Kibar
The prospect of ETH/BTC rebounding from the 0.0290-0.0319 BTC range increases further due to the pair’s monthly relative strength index (RSI), which had dropped to a historical low as of Oct. 25.
At around 33, ETH/BTC’s monthly RSI is just two points above its oversold threshold of 30. The pair’s potential dip in coming months may accompany the monthly RSI becoming “oversold” for the first time in history, suggesting that the market could overextend to the downside.
ETH/BTC monthly price chart. Source: TradingView
The RSI’s drop into the oversold territory could lead to seller exhaustion, increasing the chance of a bullish reversal. That is because so-called “oversold” RSI levels are seen as potential buying opportunities, as they suggest that the asset may be undervalued and due for a bounce.
If a bullish reversal occurs, ETH/BTC could target its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around 0.0482 BTC. Additionally, the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA; the red wave), located near 0.0549 BTC, would act as another primary upside target.
Source: X
In other words, ETH/BTC can recover by 25-50% in 2025 when measured from its current price levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
