Ethereum eyes 40% gains as ETH price fractal approaches final phase
2024.10.11 10:58
Since dropping under $2,450 on Oct. 2, Ether (ETH) price has consolidated between a narrow gap of $100 over the past nine days. While Bitcoin has exhibited market volatility, Ether’s weekly returns represent a mere 1% decline.
On the weekly chart, Ethereum has also maintained a bullish position by holding above the 200-day EMA trendline.
ETH/USD on the weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Now, a few bullish signs have been identified for the altcoin, which may trigger a positive breakout for the ETH/USD trading pair.
Ethereum enters final phase of bullish fractal
Last month, Cointelegraph reported that Ethereum’s price action was forming a market fractal, which was initially observed from May to June 2021 and March to May 2024. On both occasions, the altcoin experienced a bullish breakout, and now, a similar situation may pan out over the next couple of weeks.
Related: Ethereum price lags Bitcoin and altcoins, but is a rally to $2.6K possible?
As observed in the chart below, Ethereum’s September gains led to the clear formation of a lower high with respect to the III and IV phases of the fractal, confirming the formation of the V phase.
Ethereum 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The similarities between the two fractals in 2024 remain relevant. In both cases, price action tested the golden zone (i.e., between the 0.618-0.5 Fibonacci lines) during phase III and the 0.5 FIB during phase V. Right now, there is a like-for-like movement, which further strengthens the possibility of a bullish breakout.
Over the past week, Ether has formed equal lows around $2,300, which could be the bottom value of VI (final phase), but a drop to $2,251 would also keep the fractal valid.
The potential bullish exit and target from the previous analysis remain the same: $3,375, or a 40% rally from its current price.
ETH price double bottom vs. Bitcoin?
In addition to the fractal formation, the ETH/BC chart is signaling a bottom, which could potentially swing things in favor of the altcoin. Trader Tardigrade, a pattern analyst and crypto market analyst, highlights that on the daily chart, ETH/BTC may have formed a double bottom.
ETH/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The formation of a double bottom at the tail end of a downtrend is considered a sign of a bullish market reversal. The probability of success also increases for such a pattern if it occurs over a longer period of time, i.e., on the daily or weekly chart. The success rate for a double bottom pattern is approximately between 75-80%, according to multiple surveys.
However, it is important to note that the double bottom underlined by the analyst is incomplete since the price has not moved back to the resistance line of $0.041 after forming the equal lows, i.e., 1 and 2, in the chart.
Ether price dip before bullish breakout
Meanwhile, another market analyst, CryptoBullet, believes that ETH/USDT is potentially heading lower to $2,085 before a bullish breakout. According to the analyst,
“Ideally, we should sweep those lows (Aug 5 and Sept 6) this month, completing my triple bottom fractal, and then we can finally take off.”
ETH/USDT on the 1-day chart by CryptoBullet. Source: X.com
A drop to $2,085 would completely invalidate the market fractal discussed above, so from a directional perspective, the next few weeks will be pivotal for ETH price.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
