Ethereum ‘dying a slow death’ as ETH breaks 8-year trend vs. Bitcoin
2024.11.16 09:21
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), recently slipped below its longest-serving support level against Bitcoin (BTC), leading top analysts to conclude that it is “dying a slow death.”
Ether breaks support that once prompted a 1,800% rebound
Notably, the ETH/BTC pair broke below the ascending trendline support that has coincided with its market bottoms since 2016.
That includes the pair’s 300% rebound between December 2020 and December 2021 and a 1,800% recovery between January 2017 and May 2017.
ETH/BTC 6-week performance chart. Source: TradingView
However, in November 2024, Ethereum bulls could not defend the support, with ETH/BTC dropping by around 15% below it, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes.
In technical analysis, losing a support level—especially amid increasing trading activity—indicates strong selling pressure, meaning ETH/BTC may decline further in the coming weeks.
“Ethereum is dying a slow death,” commented Tuur Demeester, founder of Bitcoin hedge fund Adamant Capital.
Source: X.com/@TuurDemeester
In 2024, in particular, ETH/BTC has underperformed largely due to the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the United States and the underperformance of its own spot Ethereum ETF.
This, combined with Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April, increased BTC’s appeal among retail and institutional investors, resulting in a capital shift away from Ethereum and into Bitcoin.
Ether also suffered due to the growing adoption of its top smart contracts rival, Solana (SOL). SOL/ETH, for instance, has surged by over 925% since December 2022.
SOL/ETH weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Ethereum also missed key headlines during the Donald Trump election campaign, wherein he flirted with the idea of making Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset in the US, ignoring Ethereum.
These factors have resulted in strong declines in Ethereum’s crypto market dominance (ETH.D), now at its lowest since April 2021.
ETH.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView
ETH price could drop another 50%
Chart technicals show ETH/BTC entering the breakdown stage of its prevailing inverse cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern.
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The pattern is confirmed by a rounded top that signals the loss of momentum in an uptrend, followed by a smaller upward consolidation, representing a temporary pause or consolidation before resuming a downward move.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
An IC&H pattern resolves after the price breaks below their common neckline support and drops by as much as the distance between the cup’s peak and neckline.
Applying this breakdown scenario in ETH/BTC’s case brings the downside target for 2024 to 0.017 BTC, a key support level from the August 2019-January 2020 period. That is down 50% from today’s prices.
Conversely, a strong rebound from the current support level of around 0.0317 BTC—coinciding with the 0.786 Fib line—could invalidate the IC&H pattern, sending the pair toward 0.043 BTC next by 2024’s end.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
