Embraer lags in orders at Paris Airshow, but longer-term recovery seen

By Gabriel Araujo

SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Investors were left disappointed by weaker-than-expected order numbers for Brazil’s Embraer at the world’s largest air show last week, although some analysts were heartened by a bid from China and interest in its electric aircraft unit.

The world’s third-largest aircraft maker after Airbus and Boeing (NYSE:), Embraer bagged 13 fresh orders for commercial jets at the Paris Airshow, falling short of market estimates and previous years’ levels.

That led shares in the company to slip roughly 18% in a week, reversing the 11% gain seen in the days ahead of the show, when market players seemed excited by the prospects of new deals.

“Embraer’s commercial activity was not strong enough to meet investors’ expectations,” said analysts at XP (NASDAQ:) Investimentos, who remain Buy-rated on the company on growth prospects and attractive valuation.

The 13 new orders compared to 74 secured at Le Bourget in 2019 and 28 in Farnborough last year. They also lagged some upbeat market forecasts, which included at least 30 orders expected by JPMorgan (NYSE:) analysts.

Investors were especially disappointed by the lack of orders from the booming Indian airline market, which handled an all-time high 500-plane transaction to Airbus and new orders to Boeing.

“Given the significant announcements from Airbus, it’s possible that Embraer shareholders feel frustrated,” noted BTG Pactual analysts, who also have a “buy” recommendation for shares in the planemaker.

SLOW BUT LUCRATIVE

Still, a number of analysts remain bullish on the Brazilian company as a post-pandemic travel rebound continues to drive money inflow in the sector.

BTG said it was important to note the sales to existing clients Binter and American Airlines (NASDAQ:) were equivalent to 19% of Embraer’s outlook of 65-70 deliveries this year, making them “significant deals”.

Those orders add to a backlog that remains robust, with the E2 aircraft seen as largely sold out for this year and 2024 after garnering new customers such as Royal Jordanian, Salam Air and Scoot recently.

Despite the overall slow pace of deals at the air show, investment research firm Zacks still touted them as “lucrative” and “highlighting the reliability and efficiency this jetliner offers”.

Other upbeat takes from the air show came from electric aircraft subsidiary Eve, which signed deals for the sale of up to 150 flying cars, as well as Embraer’s deal to return to China by converting passenger jets into freighters.

Shares in Embraer are still up 20% so far this year, and some analysts believe upside remains.

“We believe that most of the pre-event excitement has already been adjusted in share prices,” XP said. “There is limited room for further pressure.”