ECB may need to cut rates again in Sept, Rehn says
2024.08.19 19:30
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The European Central Bank may need to cut interest rates again in September given persistent economic weakness, Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn said on Monday.
The ECB was among the first major central banks in the world to cut interest rates in June, partially reversing a record string of hikes, but held rates steady in July and gave no firm signals about its upcoming Sept. 12 meeting.
With more and more data coming in about prices and the health of the economy, Rehn has become one the first on the ECB’s 26-member Governing Council to offer a view on the appropriate course ahead.
“The recent increase in negative growth risks in the euro area has reinforced the case for a rate cut at the next ECB monetary policy meeting in September, provided that disinflation is indeed on track,” Rehn said in a speech to the European American Chamber of Commerce in New York.
Markets see a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut in the deposit rate to 3.5% in September and see at least one more move before the end of the year.
Rehn argued that the long expected pick up in the euro zone’s economy was not a given and policymakers should be prepared for different outcomes.
“The bad news relates to the growth outlook: there are no clear signs of a pick-up in the manufacturing sector,” Rehn said. “We must also consider that the slowdown in industrial production may not be as temporary as assumed.”
Rehn was more sanguine about inflation but did warn that getting price growth back to the ECB’s 2% target was not straightforward.
“The road ahead to the ECB’s 2% medium-term goal is still likely to be bumpy this year,” Rehn added.
Still, even if there were still risks to price growth, the ECB has made considerable progress, Rehn argued.
