E-Mini Bulls Want Measured Move Up to 4,150
2023.03.22 11:07
Emini daily chart
- The gapped up yesterday and formed a bull bar closing above its midpoint.
- The bulls will see yesterday as a successful breakout above a bear flag (March 13th low to March 16th high).
- Next, the bulls want measured move bear flag up, which projects up to around 4,150.
- At the moment, the market is Always In Long and likely going higher. Some bulls bought the March 6th low and got trapped on March 7th. Most of these bulls would exit and wait to buy again above a bull bar like March 15th.
- Since bulls got trapped buying the March 6th low, it will likely act as resistance, and the market will find sellers at the March 6th low.
- This means that the current rally might be a buy vacuum test of resistance (March 6th low).
- The bears want to form a lower high with the March 6th high. As long as the market is forming lower highs and lows, the bears can argue that it is in a bear trend. The problem the bears have is that the market is likely in a trading range and developing decent buying pressure. This will increase the odds of the market testing near the March 6th high.
- Overall, traders should expect higher prices and a test of the March 6th low. The bulls have a breakout above March 16th. However, they need follow-through. This means that bears will try to form a bear body today and reverse yesterday’s bull close.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 1 point in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has been going sideways for most of the overnight hours.
- Traders should expect a lot of trading range trading on the open. This means traders should be prepared to trade with limit orders for the first 6-12 bars or wait.
- As I often say, most traders should wait for a credible swing trade on the open that usually begins before the end of the 2nd hour. Also, the opening swing will often happen after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Overall, the bulls want follow-through today, and the bears want to undo the damage caused by yesterday’s bull bar.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
S&P 500 Futures 5-Min Chart
Here are several reasonable stop-entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
