E-Mini Bears Want Follow-Through Today
2023.04.26 10:01
Emini daily chart
- The sold off yesterday, closing below the past 17 bars. Yesterday’s bear breakout is a big enough surprise to lead to a 2nd leg down, probably.
- The bears want follow-through today, and the bulls want to prevent the bears from getting follow-through.
- If the bears get a follow-through bar today similar to yesterday’s close, the market could sell off quickly back to 4,000.
- While yesterday’s bar may be a bear trap, forcing bears to sell low in what will become a trading range, the first reversal up is probably limited.
- The first target for the bears is March 22nd high. The bears want to get a close below the March 22nd high.
- The bulls will try and defend the March 22nd breakout point high. They want the gap (March 22nd high) to stay open and for the market to lead to a measured move up from the March 13th high to the March 22nd high, which projects up to 4,300.
- At the moment, the upside is probably limited, and the market will probably get at least a small 2nd leg down. Traders will pay close attention to the follow-through today to see how eager the bears will be to sell after yesterday’s bear breakout.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has gone sideways during the overnight hours; the U.S. session will probably have little to no gap on the open.
- As I often say, traders should expect a trading range on the open and wait for 6-12 bars.
- Most traders should wait for the opening swing to develop, which typically happens after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom and begins before the end of the second hour.
- Because of yesterday’s strong bear breakout, traders should expect today to disappoint the bears. However, traders should also be open to the possibility of a bear trend, and if the bear begins to get strong consecutive bear trend bars on the open, they cannot be in denial.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Here are several reasonable stop-entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These, therefore, are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
