Dollar wobbles on rising bets of outsized Fed rate cut
2024.09.04 20:57
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar dipped on Thursday as traders ramped up bets for a supersized rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, with the yen a notable outperformer on safe-haven demand as concerns over the U.S. economy’s growth outlook resurfaced.
Global markets have been on edge and stocks, in particular, badly bruised, after softer-than-expected U.S. data out this week reignited concerns that the growth outlook of the world’s largest economy was less rosy than earlier thought and that the labour market could be slowing more sharply than expected.
That has led to investors fleeing risky assets in search of safety, with the yen one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The Japanese currency was last 0.26% stronger at 143.56 per dollar, having already gained nearly 2% for the week thus far.
The Swiss franc, also a traditional safe-haven currency, steadied at 0.8461 per dollar, though its 0.46% gain for the week to date was more subdued compared to the yen’s rise.
“The markets are getting anxious,” said Hemant Mishr, chief investment officer at S CUBE Capital in Singapore.
“There was a time when the markets were just focusing on positive news. There’s a perceptible change, the market is now focusing on negative news and rationalising a sell-off.”
Data released on Wednesday showed U.S. job openings dropped to a 3-1/2-year low in July, suggesting the labor market was losing steam, with the figures coming after Tuesday’s ISM manufacturing survey which remained in contraction territory.
“Job openings data for July showed few signs of the ongoing cooling in the labor market coming to an end,” said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. “For the Fed, (the) data reaffirm that the labor market is no longer a source of inflationary pressure to the U.S. economy.”
Investors have in recent times placed heightened importance on any data relating to the health of the U.S. labour market, given the Fed’s focus on protecting it.
The U.S. dollar remained on the backfoot in early Asia trade, with the euro steady at $1.1083. Sterling was little changed at $1.3147.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback fell marginally to 101.25.
Traders are now pricing in a 44% chance of an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut when the Fed meets later this month, up from 38% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Still, the focus remains on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, where expectations are for the U.S. economy to have added 160,000 jobs in August, compared with July’s 114,000 increase. The unemployment rate is forecast to ease slightly to 4.2%.
“Our estimate for Friday is it’ll be at a 4.2 to 4.3% number. If it’s more than 4.5%, I think people will start expecting a 50bp cut,” said S CUBE Capital’s Mishr, referring to the unemployment rate.
In other currencies, the Australian and New Zealand dollars were weighed down by the risk off mood on Thursday.
The fell 0.15% to $0.67155, while the was last 0.2% lower at $0.6186.
