Dollar sags to one-week low after safety bid, ‘Trump trade’ momentum wanes
2024.11.19 22:56
By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar slipped to a one-week low versus major peers on Wednesday, looking to extend a three-day decline from a one-week peak as the market catches its breath following the frantic rally in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.
A boost to the dollar and other traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen overnight proved short-lived, after Russia’s foreign minister said the country will “do everything possible” to avoid the onset of nuclear war, hours after Moscow announced it would lower its threshold for a nuclear strike.
pushed to a fresh all-time peak above $94,000, carried by expectations for a friendlier regulator environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump.
The – which measures the currency against six major peers, including the yen and euro – fell to a low of 106.07 for the first time since Wednesday of last week, and stood at 106.18 at 0247 GMT.
The index climbed to a one-year high of 107.07 on Thursday, buoyed by expectations for big fiscal spending, higher tariffs and tighter immigration under the incoming U.S. administration, measures which economists say could foster inflation and potentially slow Federal Reserve easing.
Investors are still waiting for Trump to name a Treasury Secretary, following the announcement of several other high-profile appointments, including Wall Street CEO Howard Lutnick as head of the Commerce Department.
Some of Trump’s picks have provoked controversy for their relatively meagre relevant experience.
“The ‘Trump Trade’ that boosted the greenback is facing challenges from Trump’s controversial cabinet nominations and the escalation in the Russian-Ukraine war,” DBS strategists wrote in a client note.
For the dollar over longer term though, “more weight should be put on firm economic data and the increasing likelihood that the Fed may have to slow the rate cut path even more in 2025”, they said.
Traders continue to pare back expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in December. Odds now stand at 57.3%, down from 58.7% a day earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. A month ago, wagers were at 76.8%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”, following a run of robust economic indicators.
The dollar added 0.9% to 154.84 yen after falling sharply to 153.28 on Tuesday following the Russia news.
The euro held steady at $1.0598, having recovered from a drop to $1.0524 in the previous session.
Bitcoin was flat at $91,954 after earlier climbing to a record $94,078.22.
The Financial Times reported that Trump’s social media company was in talks to buy crypto trading firm Bakkt, bolstering hopes of a cryptocurrency-friendly regime under his administration.
