Dollar firm after Powell pushes back on aggressive easing bets

09/30/2024

2 minutes read

2024.09.30 21:25

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar gained against major peers on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back overnight against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts.

The euro traded not far from Monday’s one-week low following a drop in German inflation to the lowest since early 2021, boosting speculation about another rate reduction this month.

The yen steadied close to the middle of its range against the dollar over the past month, after a volatile two days as traders sized up Japan’s incoming prime minister and his cabinet.

Australia’s dollar caught its breath following its push to the highest since February of last year on Monday, buoyed by stimulus in the country’s top trading partner, China.

The Fed’s Powell adopted a more hawkish tone in a speech at a conference in Tennessee, saying the U.S. central bank would likely stick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts moving forward. “This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” he said.

Traders remain certain that the Fed will cut again at the next policy setting meeting in November, but slashed expectations for a 50 basis-point (bp) reduction to 35.4% from 53.3% a day earlier, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.

The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a larger-than-expected half-point reduction last month.

Powell’s speech came ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data, including the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index later on Tuesday and non-manufacturing report on Thursday, followed by Friday’s potentially crucial monthly jobs figures.

“Powell did say that the speed with which the Fed cut rates will depend on the data, so clearly not ruling out the prospect of further 50 bps moves in future,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:).

“Friday’s payrolls data may yet prove decisive as to which way the Fed’s axe falls.”

The added 0.07% to 100.85 as of 0055 GMT, after pushing 0.3% higher on Monday.

It rose 0.23% to 143.95 yen, after whipsawing from as high as 146.495 yen on Friday to as low as 141.65 yen on Monday.

Shigeru Ishiba, due to be confirmed as Japan’s new premier later on Tuesday, is seen by markets as a monetary policy hawk, despite a recent toning down of rhetoric on the need for policy normalisation.

He won his party’s leadership vote on Friday in one of the closest-ever races, and is now attempting to unify the party after calling a snap general election for Oct. 27.

The euro was flat at $1.1132 after dropping as low as $1.1113 in the previous session.

Data on Monday showed inflation in Germany cooled more than expected in September to its slowest rate since February 2021. Inflation also slowed in Italy.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told parliament “the latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner,” and this should be reflected in the Oct. 17 policy decision.

The was little changed at $0.6914, after advancing to $0.69435 on Monday.

Over the weekend, China’s central bank ordered lenders to lower mortgage rates by the end of October. A slew of mega-cities such as Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen also dramatically eased home-buying restrictions.