Dollar edges back from highs; sterling gains ahead of BOE meeting
2024.12.19 05:24
Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Thursday, but remained near two-year highs after the Federal Reserve signalled a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, while sterling bounced ahead of the latest Bank of England policy meeting.
At 05:05 ET (10:05 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 107.670, after climbing to an over two-year high on Wednesday.
Dollar slips from two-year high
The dollar surged on Wednesday after the slashed its outlook for interest rate cuts in the coming year, after delivering its expected rate cut.
The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, instead of the 100 bps indicated in the previous forecasts in September.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“Markets are fully expecting a hold in January and 11bp are priced in for March. If indeed the dot plot works as a benchmark for rate expectations for the next three months, the bar for a data surprise to seriously threaten the dollar’s big rate advantage is set higher.”
The economic data slate centers around the third-quarter release, which is expected to show that annualized growth fell to 2.8% in the quarter, a drop from 3.0% the previous quarter.
Sterling bounces ahead of BOE meeting
In Europe, traded 0.7% higher to 1.2662, bouncing from Wednesday’s three-week low ahead of the Bank of England’s policy-setting meeting later in the session.
The is widely expected to hold rates unchanged, continuing its cautious approach to easing monetary policy as inflationary concerns remain.
“The focus will be on any tweaks to forward-looking language and the vote split (which we expect at 8-1 hold-cut). There is no press conference scheduled for this meeting,” ING said.
“Our perception is that the BoE will try to make this announcement a non-event, offering cautious signals for further easing down the road but still highlighting stickiness in services inflation and wages.”
rose 0.6% higher to 1.0415, bouncing after its hefty 1.3% drop in the previous session.
The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech earlier this week.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
Yen slumps after BOJ kept rates unchanged
In Asia, soared 1.5% to 157.13, jumping over 155 for the first time since late November, after the kept rates steady and flagged a cautious outlook for 2025.
The BOJ’s decision disappointed some traders holding out for a December hike. The central bank had raised rates twice this year in a historic pivot away from ultra-loose policy.
rose 0.3% to 7.3078, with the pair climbing to its highest level since September 2023. The yuan was pressured by the prospect of looser monetary conditions in China, as the government flagged more stimulus measures to boost growth.
