Dogecoin price limps below a key support after Dogeday turns into a sell-the-news event
2023.04.21 16:14
Dogecoin suffered a big blow on April 20, popularly known as “Dogeday” thanks to the failed test launch of SpaceX’s Starship rocket and downturn in the broader crypto market.
The SpaceX rocket, which featured the Dogecoin mascot on its side, disintegrated four minutes after its launch. Still, the company’s employees including Elon Musk cheered the failure as they expressed optimism for another test in coming months.
The move comes within a fortnight of Musk’s recent stunt when he momentarily changed Twitter’s logo to the Dogecoin mascot.
The launch had built considerable excitement within the Dogecoin community. DogeDesigner, a graphic designer in the Dogecoin community, tweeted about the rocket launch with eagerness.
The launch of the biggest rocket of the planet, delayed for the sake of memes.
All Hail The Meme-lord!!!
— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) April 18, 2023
However, Dogeday appears to have turned into a sell-the-news event as the DOGE/USD pair lost 11.88% of the day’s high of $0.093 to $0.083.
DOGE open interest remains elevated
Despite the drop in prices, the open interest (OI) volume for Dogecoin futures contracts are above the January 2023 high at $470 million, according to Coinglass data. Open Interest volume is the number of open positions in the futures market.
Dogecoin’s OI volumes spiked to a yearly peak of $580 million on April 4 after Twitter changed its logo to a Shiba Inu image which is also used to represent Dogecoin.
The DOGE/USD pair exhibited significant volatility following the logo change, rising over 21% to a new yearly peak of $0.10 on April 4. However, the price and IO volumes declined significantly after the social media platform returned to its original blue bird logo. The logo change was active between April 4 to April 7.
A report from crypto analytics firm, Kaiko, noted,
“DOGE open interest has roughly doubled since Elon Musk took over Twitter last year, suggesting robust capital inflows.”
The OI volume for futures contracts dropped to $460 million following a wave of liquidations. However, the OI volumes picked up again to $533 million, leading up to the excitement around rocket launch.
1-year futures open interest volume for Dogecoin. Source: Coinglass
While the DOGE price dip from April 19 caused widespread liquidations of around $104 million, the OI volumes are above the January 2023 highs, suggesting that the token may experience more volatility.
The long-to-short ratio of the futures market shows a greater inclination toward short orders, acting as a contrarian signal for further upside.
At the same time, the funding rate for perpetual swap contracts has turned positive after the dip, raising the possibility for more downturn from a long squeeze.
DOGE funding rate for perpetual swap contracts. Source: coinglass
DOGE price analysis
The supply distribution of DOGE whale addresses registered a spike with addresses holding more than $10 million in DOGE accumulating quickly. However, these whales sold their DOGE immediately after Twitter changed their logo back.
These addresses have repeated the same accumulation and distribution around Dogeday, selling heavily into the Dogeday’s decline.
Addresses with more than $10 million (red) and $1 million (green) worth DOGE. Source: Coinmetrics
The DOGE/USD pair has broken below the bullish parallel trend, raising concerns about further downside risk.
Related: Is Dogecoin coming to Twitter? Watch The Market Report
Based on the size of the parallel channel, the DOGE/USD projects a 15% decline from the present $0.083 level. A drop below of this magnitude will coincide with DOGE support level around $0.072.
DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The failed launch of SpaceX’s Starship rocket on Dogeday, coupled with the downturn in Bitcoin’s price, dealt a blow to DOGE price.
Despite this setback, the open interest volume for Dogecoin futures contracts remains elevated, indicating robust capital inflows. However, the recent dip in prices and increased selling by DOGE whales suggest further downside risks, with the DOGE/USD pair breaking below its bullish support.
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