Did 8% Bitcoin price drop change bulls’ chance of BTC hitting $100K?
2024.11.26 13:45
Bitcoin (BTC) faced an 8.2% pullback over four days after reaching its all-time high of $99,609 on Nov. 22. This decline led to $250 million in liquidations of bullish leveraged positions but failed to induce panic or push key metrics into bearish territory.
Bitcoin futures aggregate liquidation, USD. Source: CoinGlass
For perspective, the 22.6% price surge between Nov. 9 and Nov. 13 resulted in $342 million in buyer liquidations through BTC futures contracts, as indicated in the purple zone. Thus, the latest price correction does not necessarily signal a trend reversal but reflects temporary excessive leverage among derivatives traders.
To assess whether the inability to breach the $100,000 psychological threshold affected investor sentiment, it is crucial to evaluate Bitcoin miners’ activity. These entities collectively hold approximately 1.8 million BTC—valued at over $166.3 billion—and are responsible for releasing 3.125 BTC per mined block.
Bitcoin miners’ net position change, BTC. Source: Glassnode
Recent data reveals that miners have been reducing their Bitcoin positions at a rate of approximately 2,500 BTC per day, equivalent to $231 million. In contrast, US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded an average daily inflow of $670 million between Nov. 18 and Nov. 22.
While some might attribute the failure to surpass the $100,000 level to miner selling, this explanation appears insufficient. Notably, MicroStrategy announced a $5.4 billion Bitcoin acquisition on Nov. 25, demonstrating robust institutional demand.
Long-term (5+ months) net position change, BTC. Source: Glassnode
Long-term holders have also contributed to selling pressure. Historical patterns show similar behavior in late March, following multiple failed attempts to breach the $73,500 mark. Profit-taking by some whales triggered a two-month correction, culminating in Bitcoin hitting a low of $60,830 on May 1.
Is the Bitcoin bottom at $82,500?
If historical trends hold, Bitcoin’s price may bottom around $82,500—a standard 17% correction from its all-time high and far from signaling a bear market. In comparison, during the correction between March 14 and May 16, US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings showed little change, and MicroStrategy made a single purchase of 24,400 BTC.
This time, the landscape differs significantly. Spot ETF buying remains strong, with additional institutional players mirroring MicroStrategy’s approach. Among these are Japan’s MetaPlanet, Semler Scientific in the US, and Marathon Digital, a leading global Bitcoin miner. This coordinated activity suggests growing corporate adoption, which could provide a solid support level for Bitcoin’s price.
Although it is uncertain whether these entities will maintain their Bitcoin acquisition pace, the fact that Microsoft shareholders are reportedly debating a similar strategy further bolsters market confidence.
If whales and arbitrage desks anticipate a sharp price decline, hedging costs rise, pushing the put-to-call ratio above 6%. A key metric here is the 25% delta skew, which typically ranges between -6% and +6% in neutral markets. A skew outside this range suggests heightened fear or excessive optimism.
Related: Bitcoin‘s $93K dip could be ‘last flush’ before the rush: Analysts
Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas
Data from the options market underscores this resilience. The bullish sentiment observed between Nov. 16 and Nov. 26 has faded, as put (sell) and call (buy) options now trade at similar premiums, indicating a shift to neutral sentiment. However, onchain metrics and derivatives show no signs of stress or indication of a looming bear market, pointing to a bullish price outlook for Bitcoin.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
